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| What is really going on in the market ? |
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| *Market Insights - bookmark this page - we will periodically update with various relative market insights commentary for traders |
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| Inside the market Market Update 2-25-02 Dow - 10,000 may be to much resistance for the short term Nasdaq- looks poised to test recent lows...be careful For the lastest earnings warnings - click earnings warnings Alert Watch Tech stocks look particularly vulnerable to test recent lows, many tech charts also look like lows will be penetrated....be very careful.... New Buzz - word Foreward Guidance This seems to be the key with this earnings season. While it will be important for a company to meet it current earnings release projections , what will be more important will be how it will guide for upcoming qtrs. (a company could miss it's qtr badly but if it gives very sales growth going forward, the stock will likely pop up nicely, the opposite would apply as well) With P/E ratio getting all the emphasis again, it's always a good idea to see what the current P/E ratio is. Even with the recent downturn in the market you'd be surprised how high many still are high. Here's a list of some of the high flyer NASDAQ tech stocks. This is a great stock screening tool from CBS MarketWatch *Be sure to click "refresh" to get it updated throughout the day. It's ranked by current P/E ratio - highest to lowest. Find up the Best and Worst performing industries and the best and worst stock within each one. Here's a great tool CBS Market watch Industry It used to be that the third Friday of every month, Options expiration day was a volatile day with many losses occuring to the downside. But it seems times have changed (for now) Now many of the options activity occurs earlier in the week which sets up friday as an up day. Particularly if that wed and thur prior are down days. This sets up an opportunity to enter a long position sometime late thur or early fri. * Keep an eye on the open interest per each call / put stock option, wherever the majority lies (current volume, if your trading intraday) stock prices will tend to gravitate to that point.... ( A good place to find this info is go to the CBOE and enter a stock symbol in the quote area to check open interest and prices) An analogy to this would be...Think of a piece of art being auctioned off at a auction. The majority of people there think the art work is valued at least $200. since this is the majority and they believe this to be true bidding will generally gravitate to this point. So while starting bids may start below 200 it will be driven up by the majority up to the $200 area because of their perceived valu of the art work. Consequently if the item bids up well above the $200 price to say $400,(mostly from the amatures at the bidding table) the Majority will no longer support the bidding, being that they now feel the art work is over valued. Now whomever made that last bid is now stuck and will dish out $400, and unfortunately in the event they would like to sell would not be able to find any buyers at that price. The buyer would likely have to sell the art work at loss of about $200. Since again the majority perceived value is the $200......... His/Her only other option would be to hold on to it for perhaps years and years unitl the art work value rises. If it does? So keep an eye on open interest........ Traders TIP ! - did you know many stocks have similar trading patterns each month, ex... always trade down middle of the month always trade up the first five days.... Try it analyze a stock you follow , look at the past few months, look at the same months LY... not all stocks do this, but you should be able to find many that do. (another interesting study is stock sectors in relationship to the seasons , summer winter fall spring.) |
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