A missed opportunity
By
Abubakar Sadiq Ajiya
(London)
sadicom@aol.com
When the new civilian administration came to power in 1999 after decades of continual military rule, Nigerians' hopes were rekindled, perhaps justifiably. Eighteen months now into Obasanjo’s administration, there is concern about its style, its direction, and its effectiveness. People are disillusioned about government's handling of issues of national importance. The feeling among the generality of Nigerian citizens today is one of despair and grim resignation. That the yearning for a true democracy in the country may after all be light-years away, thus, dashing the common man's renewed aspirations.
The dissatisfaction has drawn attention to the ardent need to ask ourselves if we have elected the right people into the government or, in fact, if we are at all ready for civilian rule that will usher us into the 21st centaury with grace and new lease on life. Unfortunately, however, the actions of the government this far are not in consonance with our great expectations and democratic inspirations. Don’t get one wrong, it is not that one is trying to say bad things about the present administration for the sake of it, or trying to prophesize doom, but rather it is one’s expression of frustrations on the one hand and of manifestation of true love for the country on the other.
I for one would be disappointed to see my country descending the ladder of impoverishment. The harsh experiences in Somalia, Yugoslavia, Burundi, Sierra Leone and a host of other problem nations around the globe are still quite vivid in our minds. I would hate to imagine any country going through similar lessons. We must do our best to avoid falling into such predicaments. And this means everyone contributing to national stability, security, and prosperity for the betterment of all. I believe that Nigeria is greater than any one individual.
Those in position of leadership should and must appreciate the blessings God Has given them. They must recognize too the responsibilities He has bestowed upon them to lead others. A year in Aso Rock is long enough indeed to make visible desirable changes. It is not easy these days and indeed in life in general for one to be given a second chance. God Has given Obasanjo another chance, by putting him among the lucky few who make it to the top the second time around. It is a contract before the Almighty between the President and the people that elected him. It is therefore incumbent upon the leader to carry this task justly and equitably to the whole nation irrespective of ethnic, religious, or political affinity. Since we all have a stake in the country, it is equally incumbent on all Nigerians to support the President in performing this onerous task of nation-building regardless of our political, tribal, or sectarian divides.
An important ingredient of governance is honesty and transparency. While the Head-of-State may himself have acquired a modicum of these, not all the state operators are above board. Those who are found wanting should be reeducated and those who cannot learn should be shown the way out. Transparency is not much about probity being done, but about it seeing to be done. Therefore, it is not enough to know the truth if others don’t see it. I may even risk by saying in some cases that perception is even more important than reality. Part of the problems of the Obasanjo’s administration is its failure to put things in perspective. A lot of room is, thus, left for rumors and doubts, even under justifiable circumstances. Take for example the case of Abacha loot. To date, no one has yet to account to the nation on the sale of alleged ill-gotten funds and properties said to be misappropriated by the late Abacha’s family and cronies. Similarly, we are yet to know how the extracted wealth is being spent. By not telling us how much is recovered and how it is being used, the government is breeding suspicion and creating fertile grounds for criticisms. In this regard, the government must implore the instrument of accountability to dismiss the widespread fear of vendetta against the late General Sani Abacha and his family.
At the last election, we were made to believe that this government is constitutionally and philosophically different from the previous administrations and that the former's modus operandi will be based on the principles of fairness (all the niceties of words). So far, those words have not mean anything apart from casual rhetoric to confuse the electorates.
Eighteen months into the administration, there are no signs of relief for the ordinary person. Fuel queues are getting longer where hopes for fuel have not been completely lost. Electricity supply is still in an epilepsy if not in a coma. The already dilapidated and macadamized infrastructures are now crumbling. The value of the Naira continues to fall. Crime rates are escalating. Unemployment is on the increase. Nationalism is at its lowest ebb in decades. Nepotism and favoritism are the order of the day as selflessness gives way to selfishness, prudence to extravagance, dedication to corruption. We are also witnessing the rapid collapse of the political instrument and structure resulting in civil disobedience and disrespect for constituted authorities. All these are happening at such a large scale and within such a short time. In short, it may be safe to conclude that the regime, which has little to write home about, is drifting into mediocrity.
Suffice is to say that the government has no solid programs and strategies to deal with the immense recurring national problems. Where policies are in place, the government seems incapable of translating them into concrete actions. The lesson, therefore, is that the nation is being run on a day-to-day basis as the challenges are being addressed in a manner that is tantamount to treating the symptoms rather than root causes. It is increasingly unclear what party agenda the government is following and if indeed any party agenda are being pursued. I recall a friend of mine recently who has asked an advisor to the president whether the government has any agenda manifesto in running the country. Categorically, the advisor points that if there is, it will be an ad hoc one. Yet, we know that a supermarket cannot be run in that fashion, let alone a whole country.
But who is to blame for all these anomalies? Granted that the leadership plays the key role, but the public too must take some of the blames. I believe it takes the entire nation to bring about meaningful transformation, especially in a system subjected to misrule for so long. Nation building, however, does always require a Messiah, but in it certainly requires leaders with vision. In Nigeria, we seem to have the former not the latter. It requires a people's willingness to support the leadership to attain national goals. Such vision and willingness are our greatest investment, but patience, honestly, accountability, transparency, discipline, faith, humility, and respect are the currencies. It is therefore an all-embracing task for the masses and the leadership throughout the Federation to effect a change.
In identifying our unique problems and ascribing solutions to them, we should not forget the external forces that continue pulling us down. Here I am referring to the relationship between Nigeria and its creditors. The issues we have to grapple with for the foreseeable future are many and quite tricky. We must assess the short- and long-term benefits of loan acquisition. We may ask what are their implications in the long run on our social, economic, and political well-being. From all indications, external debts from the so-called international financial shylocks have only sunk us deeper in debts. We really have noting to show for the funds successive governments have taken in the past. This suggests that the monies have not gone far enough in meeting the objectives for which they have been taken. This is not unexpected, noting how these financial institutions operate. Apart from stringent earth-shattering conditionalities, these loans also come with high interest rates. Like the credit card system in capitalist world, the loans entice the unsuspecting shortsighted lenders, not knowing that they will pay many times over the principles they borrowed in interest. Nigerian is a classical example of a nation that has fallen prey of these loan sharks. General Abacha realized this and refused to take a kobo loan, yet he was able to execute such big projects as the PTF. If Abacha can why can't Obasanjo?
No sooner the present administration settled, it went borrowing. Even as it was begging for debt cancellation and later debt reduction, it was also prospecting for fresh loans. The irony about last week’s President Obasanjo’s visit to the U.K. was that high on Obasanjo's agenda was seeking Britain’s support for debt reduction. This came when Nigeria and other oil producers were enjoying an oil bonanza, thanks to the unexpected unprecedented fuel price raise, which might escalate during the advancing winter season. Just as Obasanjo was soliciting Tony Blair’s blessing for debt reduction and a Nigerian delegation was on the other side of the Atlantic looking for more loans from the IMF, Britain was rocked by public strikes in the aftermath of the recent fuel price raise. Rather than seeking more loans that would only swell our $30 billion debts half of which in interest, it would be more sensible for both Nigeria and Britain to rework a fair price for our oil. We would be out of our debt if we got a better deal for our export commodities.
The $1 billion credit facility secured from the IMF last month, in which Nigeria promised to implement in return yet another painful programs of structural adjustments, might leave us with just the pains, if we realize that $1 billion is a drop in the ocean compare to Nigeria’s huge economic problems of which interest payment in a big chunk. We may not mind swallowing a pill that doesn't cure, but let it not be bitter as well. It is apparent that the inevitable escalation of oil price in the months to come will result in major global economic crisis, the magnitude of which may compare only to the Arab oil embargo. While overall the trend in the crude oil hike may have some ephemeral financial gains for Nigeria, the political problems that the oil hike will generate in the oil consuming nations may in the long term adversely affect our economy. And in such a situation, it will be disastrous for a developing nation to obtain more loans. My thesis in this article, therefore, is that Nigeria should use the present fuel price dilemma as a bargaining chip to reschedule its loans on better terms. It is possible that we can be out of debt within the shortest possible time, yet with minimum cost. This way, the future of our young generation would be secured.
I am not saying that debt remission is a bad thing. It can be just as good, provided it is not going to open fresh avenues for further indebtedness. In fact, loans are by themselves not inherently detrimental, especially for nations without alternative resources, where they can use credits to stimulate growth and development. But Nigeria not only has the resources but also the alternative economic base. What it lacks however are the economic stimuli. All these make one wonder if indeed this is not an opportunity missed by Nigeria.
The sooner the President forgets about the IMF, the World Bank and the other financial usurers and starts proper home-based reforms by revamping agriculture the better, for that will be hardest hit sector when the full impact of the global economic crisis arrives. Resuscitating the economic infrastructure must also go pari pasu with improving health, education, transportation, telecommunication, and power and water supplies. It is also wise to revisit other natural and mineral resources overshadowed by the lucrative but volatile oil sector. The buzzword is diversification, but we must not discount the potential contribution of Nigerians in diaspora. Given the right incentives, we can tap into their enormous wealth. Through direct investment, home remittances, and other forms of wealth repatriation, Nigerians abroad can contribute significantly in social development of our country. With the right atmosphere and encouragement, Nigerians abroad can meet the Nigeria’s fiscal needs for socio-economy transformation. That is what some nations like India and Pakistan have done with success. This is the type of model we should be copying, not the unrealistic high standards and consumerism of the Western countries. It is a better idea to copy from the success of third world economies than to mimic advanced nations who we are on a different development frames from us.
It is essential for the present leadership to understand the econometrics of investment, for which globetrotting is not the panacea. The basic laws of economics are clear about the factors for business and industrial location. Topping the list is political stability, which we are lacking, infrastructure which is either non-existent or in state of disrepair. Fortunately, we have abundance of raw materials and huge market constituting our large population. What Obasanjo needs is to focus in these areas? His government should concentrate in creating the enabling conditions for investment. The days for making false claims are over in this information age. It is not enough to tell the world that we are ready for investment as indeed any investor can easily determine that. The world today is too advanced and sophisticated for such invalid proclamations. Investors know where to get the information and they have access to the Internet. Obasanjo must realize that the world has reached a level where it cannot be taken for granted by word of month, flamboyant state visits, and such other paraphernalia as presidential hosting. It takes but just simple statistics, such as the ones on Nigeria’s placement as the most corrupt nation on the face of the earth, to undo all the efforts of the President, despite millions spent on expensive trips and merry-making rendezvous.
Instead of traveling from one country to another, begging for debt remission, he (Obasanjo) should have stayed at home to deal with our social ills, putting measures in place and working with the National Assembly to arrest moral laxity and to reverse the spiraling decline in the standard of living of our people. The most urgent problems of Nigerians today is not image redemption, but insecurity. There is insecurity of safety, insecurity of means of living, insecurity of the future education of our children, even insecurity of jobs. These are the immediate issues the President should tackle. The menace of armed robbers in Nigeria is so grave that Nigerians are wondering if not afraid of showing off of what they legitimately accumulate. In other words, people are prevented from enjoying the fruits of their labors, because the robbers too are out for the same fruits which they did not labor. There is an army of the unemployed and underemployed all in the disguise of almajiris, OPCs, and Bakassi Boys. Their potential dangers in crises situations are well known. Unless this teeming population is positively engaged, there will be no peace in the country. As the saying goes, an idle mind is a devil's brigade. We really have not option. We either accommodate them or no high-fenced wall will shield us from their attacks. Let Obasanjo address the issues at home and leave his skilful diplomats do their jobs outside Nigeria.
The money spent on foreign trips and lavish grandeur at the expense of our foreign missions abroad, should be better spent on payment of staff salaries and improving the services of the embassies. Such visits could be justified if they have yielded substantial dividends. Since they have not, it would be better to redirect further spending to poverty alleviation program and other meaningful projects that have direct benefit to community. One cannot yearn for respect abroad when his or her countrymen and women are left in abject poverty and bondage. Better still, put your own house in order, people outside will come to you, naturally! |
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