Modelling Social and Economics Processes - From: The Research Centre for Global Governance Dr. F. Sefidvash - pgg@vortex.ufrgs.br Fax.+55-51-316.3983 - Miscellaneous - http://maxpages.com/paginas/Socio

Problem: At present a complete system of models, adequately describing national economy, does not exist. Solution: It is necessarry to develop a uniform system of models for the study of topics involving ecological, economic, political and social problems with the participation of scientists around the world. "ON MODELING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PROCESSES" Talgat K. Sirazetdinov (Kazan, Republic Tatarstan) At present the fast-growing human population has accumulated power, which is equivalent to the restoration forces of the whole planet. The force of the human mind has become the dominant force on the planet Earth and has resulted in a revolution in industry which, due to inordinate interference with nature, has led to the present economic and ecological condition. The time has come for the mental and spiritual forces of humanity to work together, so as to limit the impact on nature, and the influence of mind power, which needs to be guided by spiritual values. If such control and management are not to be supplied, the destructive effect of a human being on the environment can make the planet unliveable for all human beings. In this way, mankind's economic activity can become destructive to life itself. The intensive industrial and agrarian development of natural resources over last fifty years has caused significant deterioration of ecological conditions both in the Russian Federation (RF) and the Tatarstan Republic(RT). All this occurs within a context of general decline of manufacture, growth of crime, enhancement of social unrest, decrease in birth-rate and increase in death-rate. At present the management of economic and ecological processes is carried out somewhat spontaneously, with no attempt to foresee and analyse the consequences of the decisions and measures taken in attempts to manage the economy. The measures, accepted at present in the struggle with economic and ecological problems, have the character of a struggle with the consequences, rather than with the forces that brought them about. It is necessary to revise the development model of our civilisation. Furthermore, it is an established fact that the conversion process in industry is occurring all over the world. All manufacturing and other industries and are being reduced and reoriented. Workers are made redundant and unemployment is widespread. It is necessary, whenever possible, to reduce unemployment, to find ways of utilising the skills of those who have been made redundant, to produce new products and to devise new ways of manufacturing, in order to provide stability in the functioning of the economic system as a whole. Thus, facing society as a whole, all over the world, is an enormous social-economic problem, which requires an immediate solution. These issues cannot be resolved without government participation, regulation and planning, which means serious interference in established norms. For this reason, a need has arisen for a careful study of economics, along with the whole process of man's management of natural resources and its ecological consequences. For this purpose it is necessary to involve modern science, with the use all the statistical means for forecasting, in the creation of new economic structures, the accommodation of manufacturing, the development of an innovation policy and recommendations for decision-making by an administrative staff. There are various types of economic-mathematical models. In the construction of such models, the balance approach, i.e. model of Leontiev's type is frequently used. However, production is an extremely complex process and requires taking into account separately the development of an industrial product and its functioning. The economic and production processes are essentially dynamic and their modelling cannot be limited only to balance models. Economics should be considered as a dynamic system that, on the one hand, produces the useful product, engages in distribution, exchange and consumption of the manufactured product, and on the other hand, produces harmful poisonous products, while creating criminal conditions and intense social problems in real life. NEXT PAGE

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