Modelling Social and Economics Processes II Part - From: The Research Centre for Global Governance Dr. F. Sefidvash - pgg@vortex.ufrgs.br Fax.+55-51-316.3983 - Miscellaneous - http://maxpages.com/paginas/Socio_Economic

Since the seventies, the elaboration of dynamic economic-mathematical models of the manufacturing process as the main factor in the development of an industrial object and the distribution of its production, has been under way in the Branch Dynamics Research Laboratory and Management of Economic Objects of Kazan Aviation Institute. In these models, commodity flows are taken into account the, as they come from one enterprise to another, establishing a dynamic connection among the enterprises. Models included five hundred enterprises with a long list of names of manufactured products, whose interaction was taken into account. A recently developed approach is used for modelling the development and functioning of regional economy, and the processes of transition to the market relations. An aggregated model was constructed of the development and functioning of a region. The model constructed takes into account market and barter exchange of manufactured products, allocation and return of the credits, investment, influences on the level of taxes and a number of other factors. Parameters of the model for RT were determined, i.e. the model was adjusted to RT. The reports show remarkable results, inasmuch as they have completely confirmed a real situation. In RT the economic system in force (the system of crediting, taxation, market condition, price and other basic moment) has caused the destruction of all the manufacture in the Republic, especially that involving engineering, and without the constant interference of administrative bodies, economy would long ago have ceased. For example, in 1992, the machine-building complex was to stop in two years; according to the condition of manufacture of RT at the beginning 1996, as accounts show, production was to practically come to a halt by December 1996. Why has this not happened? It has not happened and is not happening because of a number of the laws and rights are being systematically infringed on: delay of return of credits, non-payment of the taxes and salary, state grants, i.e. continuous infringements of the standard rules of a market economy. The operation of efficiency models already constructed shows the need for developing a more complete system of models, which could take into account the interaction, first of all ecological and economic processes and then social, political and other essential factors describing the condition and level of development of human society. Human society and, in particular, national economy represent a complex functioning and development system of various interconnected objects. These objects in turn have a complex internal structure, which has some stability and aspiration for self-preservation. The stability of the developing system is provided by the destruction of old structures of objects, and their inclusion in interaction with new objects, with extended opportunities. For a national economy to maintain its viability and steady development, it is necessary to be able to predict its behaviour, to investigate possible variants of the development and to choose steady form of development. At present a complete system of models, adequately describing national economy, does not exist. Even for considering only one given region, the description is not by one, but by set of a hierarchical system of models. For some kinds of objects, such models are developed. For a number of important objects and processes, such as criminal, social, political processes, etc., these models are lacking. In many cases, the models are aggregated and somewhat rough. It is necessary to begin the systematic development of a uniform system of models for the study of such complex areas as those involving ecological, economic, political, social and other problems with the participation of positively oriented scientists and experts of whole the world. ------------------------------------------------------------ Resume: Talgat Sirazetdinov is the Head of the Dep. of Control and Marketing of Kazan State Technical University, D.Sc., professor, Merited Scientist of RT and RF, member of Tatarstan Academy of Sciences and American Math. Society. His researches devoted to the problens of Aerodynamics, Flight Dynamics. Optimization and Stability of Ditributed Parameter Systems, Synthesis of Multicriteria and Multiconditions Systems, Modelling of Economic Objects. His hobby is Oriental Philosophy and establishment connection between the Modern Science and Man's Spiritual World. (Kazan, Republic Tatarstan) PREVIOUS PAGE

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