| Weekend Report |
| October 9, 2004 |
Hello Everybody: I hope everyone managed to escape relatively unscathed this week. As I mentioned last weekend, I was pretty surprised when we blew out 1920 on the Naz. I said that I thought we would not go higher than 1960 before a hard pullback. Well, we did go past 1960...but the magic 1920 level is where we ended up. I also mentioned last week that I did not expect the Naz 5 day A/D to go over 700. But it went to 800+ before we turned back. It now stands at -250. We would be in Oversold territory at -300...However, we have seen it go as low as -1100 this year. The nice thing about it going real low is that we normally come back strong making for many good long opportunities. Of course it works both ways. So...1920...Now what???...I have only taken a cursory look at the major technical indicators...but it looks like a little more downside to me very short term before we head back up. This weekend I thought we'd take a look at some stocks with Cup w/ Handle chart Patterns. Below I'm listing some on my list. I'll admit...some are a stretch....And some do not meet the suggested price/volume and or time criteria. Also, I'd like to point out that just because they have this pattern does not mean that they are worth watching. I just offer them as a starting point so you can further investigate them to see if they meet your preferred criteria: CAS...The vol is too high on the handle. It is also a low ADV stock TKR...I like this one and will watch it closely BZH...vol high on handle EV...cup duration a bit short NAT...this one is a stretch...but could be ready to form a handle FDS...another stretch...have to wait to see what might develop DWSN...needs a little drift down on low vol GWR...more of a Wild Saucer w/ Handle pattern...another wait and see SHFL...nice pattern...would've liked to see more vol on the right side though GTRC...probably on everyone's watchlist PDC...been patiently waiting...looks promising ARTC...looked promising last weekend...but still worth watching ASPM...Sort of stalled out on a short tight base on the handle HDWR...Cup a bit short in duration Group/Sector Report Got pretty defensive on Friday...Depending on who's Groups/Sectors you watch...You probably saw Gold, Utilities, Energy, Railroads, Restaurants etc...doing well. Some that I was watching(but didn't buy) were GOLD, BGO, GBN. Here are the Dow Jones Advancers/Decliners for the week. Very defensive numbers. ...............Advanced/Declined 30 Indus..........6/24 20 Transp........9/11 15 Utils..........12/3 65 Stocks......27/38 Same Store Sales(SSS) The September and Y-T-D reports came in Friday night...We are annualized at 4.3% but that is because the first 5 months of this year were really good. We are on track for the best year since 1999...but SSS is fading so I am not all that enthusiastic. Retail-Apparel had it's worst month this year in September...but AEOS, BEBE, PLCE and GADZQ.PK reported well. Gadzooks could be making a comeback from the Pinks...but I will pass. New Highs The following stocks reached new highs and closed up on 2x+ ADV on Friday: GMR EON PBNC LDIS STTX BEBE ZICA TU APCS TIE LCC SBAC TT LMRA Technical Watch The following look very bullish short term according to major technical indicators: MDU EFJI UNWR PYR MCX FDS PHI EAS ELOS RRGB The following have a 50dma which has crossed over the 200dma to the upside: NTAP ENZN SYMM Bullish MACD Crossovers: HBIO RCOM VISG Calendars Earnings season starts to get rolling this week. I have posted next week's EPS Calendar along with the Economic Calendar at Reed Floren's Forum. Please take a look...You do not have to be a member to view. http://www.reedfloren.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=32&st=1305 Site Watch I have over 1,000 stock related sites bookmarked. Obviously I don't use most of them but I thought it might be interesting to share a few with you each week. Perhaps you'll find something useful: Short Interest...Would you like to know what the latest short interest is on your holdings? You can also check previous short interest. SI is reported once a month around the 24th-26th as of the 15th at NasdaqTrader News and More...Most investors use Yahoo for at least some of their info. However, many I know have no idea that Yahoo Finance has a Site map. You'll find an easy to use directory of everything Yahoo Finance has to offer at http://finance.yahoo.com/sm Trading Halts...Interested in stocks that have been halted? Wonder why no trades are appearing on your streamer? Check this site out http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/TradeHaltShowPage.asp Support/Resistance...As many of you know, I post some of the daily suppport and resistance levels for the Naz and QQQ's all over the Net. There are different ways to calculate S/R...many use previous highs and lows. In addition to highs/lows I use a complex formula which takes into account gaps, swings, MACD, RSI, Stochastics, Fibs and congestion. What does it all mean? Here is a nice explanation http://www.recognia.com/reference/tech_sr.htm ***SPECIAL OFFER!!!*** ...Are you interested in finding stocks that are setting up for potential Breakouts? Our friends at BreakoutInvestor.com have just what you are looking for. I check their site on a daily basis and have found it a real timesaver in my research. This weekend, the owner of BreakoutInvestor has been gracious enough to provide our readers with the link to Monday's List at no charge. Please take a look...You will find some stocks well worth adding to your watchlist http://breakoutinvestor.com/OCt11 Here are a few non-stock related sites which I believe you will find useful: Check your computer's speed up to 3 times a month for FREE at http://bandwidthplace.com/speedtest I just checked mine and it ran at 1.6 megabits per second. Going to Vegas??? You have to check out what Casino Boy has to say before you go. This is how I found out they have 10 cent roulette at the Klondike Hotel http://cheapovegas.com/index.php FREE virus scan...Norton or MacAfee can't find out what is wrong with your computer? Well, chances are this site will http://housecall.antivirus.com/housecall/start_corp.asp Don't forget to see what's new at http://Financiallinksonline.com We now have over 320 high quality sites listed in our Directory. Weekend News Plan on taking a trip soon? Well, plan on paying more for airfare. British Airways joined others on Friday including American, Continental, Northwest, United etc... in raising fares due to fuel price increases. Fuel accounts for approx. 14% of an airlines expense. Like I've always said..."One day the Government will run the airlines"...but that's another story. Lone Star Technologies Inc. (LSS) plans to reverse a third-quarter loss, but still forecasted earnings well below Wall Street's estimate because of higher-than-expected increases in raw materials costs. French President Jacques Chirac on Saturday called for an end to a European Union arms embargo on China as companies from both nations signed contracts worth more than $1 billion during a high profile visit meant to strengthen commercial ties. Unless you were in a coma this week, you are proably aware that some of the Chinese stocks are hot. Last weekend we spotlighted JOBS as an IPO to watch. I personally traded SNDA this past week and I have owned LTON for months. Here is a briefing on Chinese stocks in case you missed it http://www.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Silver/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?PageId=109&SiteId=0&ArticleId=NS20041008104850SmallCapFocus Bambi likes YHOO... Click Here I hope you find something useful in this little report...I'd like to reiterate that none of the stocks mentioned above are recommendations. I only offer them as ideas for you to check out. Last weekend's report had some that did very well this past week: OPEN...broke out from a CwH pattern on Monday...I thought it was shark bait...but it held the B/O. WEDC...moved past strong resistance SMTI...kept climbing although the volume was low WIND...moved well at the beginning of the week but gave most of it back by Friday IMOS...blew out the 200dma on Tuesday and was up 22% at one point during the week. But like most...gave some back on Friday and ended up 11% for the week CPE...moved well past resistance and finished up 5% JOBS...The recent IPO was up 14% on Monday...but cooled off and ended down 6% for the week. The action is a little wild on this one...so I'd wait till it settles in. Could be nice for a daytrade though. GMR...Shipping for the most part still did well...I still think it will cool off soon...but this one was up 15% AKS...Up 18% ZEUS...up 14% but it was turned back at the 50dma after being up quite a bit more STHLY...The Greek Telcom co. continues it's flat base. Difficult to find much on this company. It's all Greek to me on their site http://www.tim.com.gr Well, that's about it for this week. A lot depends on how the earnings reports start coming out. Good Luck to All...Doug aka IIC aka Mr. Breakout |
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