| Weekend Report |
| October 2, 2004 |
| Hello Everyone: Well, I was a bit surprised that the Naz did not turn back at 1920 and the QQQ at 35.65 on Friday. Now I have mixed feelings about the market direction. At this time I'd say that there could be some further upside on the Naz in the next few days. But I don't believe we can go any higher than 1960 before we get a substantial pullback. The 5 day Naz A/D currently stands at 410 which is Bearish. However, we have seen it get up to the 900 range this year. The A/D was a very predictable indicator last year...not so much this year. But +700 would surprise me. If we have an even A/D day on Monday, the 5 day will be at about 680. The 10 day has just moved into Bearish territory. The 12 Day is now positive heading towards Bearish...But the 12 and 30 Day have not reached Bearish territory yet. I realize that the A/D is not the most reliable indicator...but it is quick and easy used in conjunction with other tools. Late Upgrades on Friday(Before the close) AMAT TER NVLS EPS and Economic Calendar I posted them at Reed Floren's Forum. You do not have to be a member to view the post. Just click this link: http://www.reedfloren.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=32&st=1275 Nasdaq Short Interest For September it is 5,248,399,985...Highest level this year IPO Watch This is an interesting one... JOBS ...It is a Chinese Employment Service Co. The offering on Wed. was $14. The IPO was delayed but the offering was higher than first anticipated by $1.00 to $3.00. It opened at $18.98. The Friday close was $26.30. I'd rate it a Strong Watch at this point. You can view their website, but be prepared to pack a lunch...It is the slowest site I've seen in a long time...especially the English version. Here is the site addy http://www.51job.com However, if you are interested in reading about this company, here is a Google page you can use: http://trimurl.com/IT Industry Watch Shipping continues to amaze me...it has to be one of the most boring industries around. I believe it will cool off soon. One of the leaders, FRO has seen a volume drop off. VLCCF is low on the weekly volume too. But OMM has continued and GMR is worth keeping an eye on. Chemicals are moving nicely. You may want to research GGC and NCX. I'd like to see a low vol slight correction on both. Steel is doing well. I like MUSA which could move if the group stays strong. Would also expect further upside on AKS and CMC. ZEUS was up 2% After Hours on Friday on just under 16,000 shares. After Hours Friday's are usually pretty boring A/H...I didn't find anything particularly noteworthy. VSEC was up 3.5% on 10,000 shs. Overall Advancing/Declining Volume was almost dead even. Saturday's News (As of 3pm EDT) IMPAC Introduces MOSAIQ, An Image Enabled Electronic Medical Record, For Cancer Care - Update [IMPCE] Raytheon And Massachusetts Union Reach Labor Accord [RTN] Longview Fibre Signs LoI To Sell Bag Business To Ampac Packaging - Update [LFB] Safeguard Sciences Completes Sales Of Its 51% Stake In CompuCom Systems For $128 Mln - Update [SFE] Wal-Mart Estimates Sept Comp Sales At 2.3%[WMT] Verilink Revises 4Q "Non-GAAP" EPS To 1c From 2c Restated "GAAP" loss for the fourth quarter at $538,000 or $0.03 per share, compared to earlier reported loss of $500,000 or $0.03 per share[VRLK] Trading Ideas (As of Saturday Noon PDT) There were some good ones in last weekend's report...too bad I didn't catch any of them. But I know some of you did... From last Weekend's Cup w/ Handles list we saw FHRX and BEIQ breakout. No new one's found this morning but from last week's list the following are still worth watching: OPEN BCII HSII...p/v not classic BFAM...could breakout at any time PDC...handle getting a little too long ARTC...not good on Friday but still worth watching From last week's Technical Watch...LAKE was up 4% but the volume was too low. TRGL up a little and IDSY tanked on volume on Monday...but got some of it back on a good Friday. However, I will drop these 3 from my personal watchlist. This week's Technical Watch consists of: STHLY...attempted a flat base breakout on Friday. Also an MACD crossover. I will watch this one closely on Monday SNDK...if Semis continue SMTI...I am more bullish on this one Intermediate term rather than Short term WEDC...wish I had seen this on Friday...already a flat base breakout. However, if it can move past $5.35 on volume, it could get quite a bit more AEIS...sort of a Dumpster Dive...Did well on volume on Friday on the flat base. Still has a gap to fill at $11.11 These 3 are considered potential short term Technical Movers. They can be considered for scalps on volume moves: IVIL SWN CHE 50/200 dma Crossovers I won't be watching these myself, but maybe some of you like these type: FFIC FUND IFLO...holding above the 200 dma From last week's Flat Bases...AMHC moved nicely. DGII ended up +7%. Thursday it really moved intraday but gave much of it back. Good Friday on volume. Needs to blowout $12.07. JUPM ended up 8%. Was up more but gave some back on Friday. AVO was up almost 4% for the week and vol picked up on Thursday and Friday. I would continue to watch it for a possible volume move over $40.10. I do not have any flat base candidates yet this weekend. From last week's Others to Watch...DRTK continued it's move closing up everyday and ending the week at +10.7%. Low volume STST dropped all week but got it all back and more on Friday. DHB was up $1.01 for the week. I think it still has room to advance. PMTI took till Friday to do anything...but it was a Great Friday and it closed up 8% for the week. GTRC closed up 99 cents for the week. Again, this one waited till Friday to do much of anything. Still worth watching if it can advance on volume. DGX closed up almost 2% but Friday's action was not encouraging. NVTL was the only one from my last weekend lists that I bot myself...Daytraded it on Friday for a 28 cent a sh loss. It closed up 4 cents for the week but is still worth watching. VIP closed up $10.50 for the week...it had a great chart pattern but it is a bit pricey. For this week I would continue to watch: DHB PMTI GTRC NVTL New stocks to watch: WIND...if upside volume continues MTH HDWR...moving well on vol after correction IMOS...if Semis continue I would watch to see if it can blowout the 200 dma. Closed strong on Friday. CPE...Watch to see if it can blow past $13.10 I hope everyone is having a nice weekend...Best To All...IIC, Doug, Mr. Breakout or whatever...I don't care what you call me...as long as you call me...LOL |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |