| Weekend Report |
| November 14, 2004 |
Hello Everyone: Hopefully you have been able to take advantage of this run where the Nasdaq Composite has risen about 10% since the October 26th close. As you probably know, I expected a pullback at 2025, 2058 and 2080. Looks like there may still be some steam left, but I'm being extra cautious as I fully expect a significant pullback. The RSI(14) is now at 77 and the Williams %R (14) has me a bit concerned. The next level of Naz Resistance is 2095. You can see all the Support/Resistance levels by clicking the appropriate page over to the left in the Table of Contents. Most of the major indices were up around 2%-2.5% for the week. The NYSE weekly advance/decline/unchanged issues was 2486/1003/81 while the Nasdaq was 2246/1113/81 and the DJ Composite was 54/11/0 with the Industrials, Transportations and Utilities all closing up. In fact, all 15 of the DJ Utilities closed up for the week. We'll just have to see what happens. I will try to take advantage of this run but I'll be ready to bail on short term trades at the first sign of trouble. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles ROS PTR ARO ZOLT KWK CHE Still worth watching from last week: SYNM GDT VRX CPE From last weeks list the following passed their pivot, but none had the volume necessary to be considered breakouts: BDX +4% STJ +1/2% PAAS +4% FAC +3% MACD Crossovers KONG VTS UCO TDW SSRI SKE CLI PGH NCT SDIX ABAX ESST ABB GRS IRM HP MAFB MANU HNR ICCI BDH DISH IPXL REM BRKR CAM CLP CLZR DCGN INGR THE MXRE PDC IOM NGEN From last week's list the following were up at least 3%(rounded): ECLG +24% MOBE +15% BLS +14% NNDS +13% MXO +12% WSO +9% CHU +5% PHCC +3% RAS +4% FBN +5% CNET +3% AHS +15% CCRN +8% UIC +12% BSTE +6% APD +4% HAIN +4% HILL +3% LPL +4% NYMX +6% SYMM +5% OSI +4% WDR +4% TNL +4% SSCC +3% Flat Bases/Low Volume SMP ATRX EK TSS OCLR MERX From last week's list : NAVR +9% 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma BGO ZLC WFR MAT DIS EXEL MANT EFJI MHO IUSA From last week's list: TPX +17% ADSX +14% PLCM +7% GTOP +7% SCHN +7% FCFS +6% SRZ +4% SONE +3% CBRL+3% CAAS +4% CA +3% BVN +3% Generally bullish short term technicals IIH PFSW DXYN TLK QSFT PHSY From last week's list: ULCM +10% SSI +5% RSI(14) moves upward over 30 MMC PLB From last week's list: LF +10% AEGN +6% RSI(14) moved upward over 50 APA WITS UTEK TMA SWKS APC SNIC SCSC PPP PEGS HURC NFX IFIN NFI HTCH ATRS ATW MUR IMN LSS LAB IPAS NFG BRKS MXO GSF FXEN FSS COT BW CBT From last week's list: OPSW +10% HOM +9% ACF +6% DNB +3% LAVA +4% FMC +5% ABGX +3% RSI(14) moved upward over 50 AND an MACD crossover ABAX SDIX ESST SKE From last week's list: MOBE +15% Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV PIXR CCJ BOOM DRIV DELL MLS HRL LNG AMD MCHX PBCT RAVN ALGI CPO GME DSV MCRI RWT TMIC LLL IVC BXP ALEX EQIX SQM VNO YANB BWLD UBS WPTE SLI SYM LBTYB DRTK WSBA HANS NATR WRI MPX NSDB JLN ELV UGP MATR WIND CLDN CTHR MFLX LNOP MXT CUK IWR PSPT DVY PCSA SCX CDX IXP EXPB SJH EZU MFLO ABVC IYM EWD FNBF TSMA RAE CVCO PFIN ABCB TIBB ELGX CRHCY HOLX WTR JKK EPAY FFEX SIMG TWI XPRSA CRME AMEN PRVD TACX RTWI UCBI PFSW IYJ IXG JH TU FPO FUND EWN DAVE KRY ISL EWL GPX FINB TAXI EWC PRWT MTLM SAFT PBCP SVNX WEB DISK Sectors/Groups Top Sectors on Friday Home Construction, Coal, Mining Worst Sectors on Friday Life Insurance, Advanced Industrial Equipment, Medical Supplies Top Groups on Friday Computer Hardware, Semiconductors, Communication Services Worst Groups on Friday Miscellaneous Transportation, Insurance(Accident/Health), Insurance(Miscellaneous) Top Indices on Friday DJ-Coal, DJ-Steel, DJ-Computers Worst Indices on Friday DJ-Medical, DJ-Trucking, AMEX-Biotechnology Top DJ Indices for the week Mining +10.25%, Steel +8.98%, Home Construction +6.63% Worst DJ Indices for the week Casinos -.83%, Clothing/Fabrics -.73%, Life Insurance -.59% Note: I only check the Major DJ Indices. After Hours Friday was somewhat interesting. Decliners led Advancers 953/506 with 997 issues unchanged. But Advancing volume led Declining volume 28 million shares to 18 million. Decent gainers on over 25,000 shares traded were one of "Doug's Dogs" FMTI and PSPT Site Watch Looking for savings on the Wall Street Journal Print and/or Online Editions? This link offers 8 weeks FREE on the print and/or 2 weeks FREE on the online edition. Subscribe today to Print or Online and receive a special free week offer!!! ***SPECIAL OFFER!!!*** ...Are you interested in finding stocks that are setting up for potential Breakouts? Our friends at BreakoutInvestor.com have just what you are looking for. I check their site on a daily basis and have found it a real timesaver in my research. Again this weekend, the owner of BreakoutInvestor has been gracious enough to provide our readers with the link to Monday's List at no charge. Please take a look...You will find some stocks well worth adding to your watchlist http://breakoutinvestor.com/monov15 Also, take a look at this: http://breakoutinvestor.com/thisweeksbreakouts Do you have trouble posting those loooong hyperlinks at groups, forums, chatrooms or message boards? One of my other sites that I run with Reed Floren (http://ReedFloren.com) is called http://Trimurl.com It is a FREE service that we provide which allows you to paste in a long link...TrimUrl shortens it for you so that it will be hyperlinked when you paste it somewhere else. Also, we recently received a nice plug for TrimUrl if you'd like to take a look at http://channels.lockergnome.com/windows/archives/20041104_snip_trim_make_a_shorter_tiny_baby_url.phtml Want to learn more about technical trading and indicators? Try Stockcharts.com's Education Center. You don't have to be a subscriber. I review the sections I'm interested in on a regular basis. http://stockcharts.com/education Here's a fun one!!! Take a trip back in time to see what your favorite websites looked like back in the olden days. These people have saved jillions of old pages...take a look and bookmark it. You can even perform advanced searches to progressively see how sites changed. http://www.archive.org/web/web.php And don't forget to check out the new listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com This 'N That *** Same Store Sales(SSS) Report...I wanted to post this last Sunday, but I didn't get the report until Monday...Sorry about that. Anyway, October's SSS numbers were very encouraging. Overall + 3.8% which is the highest since May's +5.8%. We are now projected at +4.3% for the year. This would be the highest increase since 1999. Retailers are gearing up for a good holiday season. I usually start my Christmas shopping at about 7pm on Christmas eve...BTW, does Overstock.com deliver on Christmas morning??? As far as Retail Group performance, we were led by Specialty Apparel at + 7.6%, the highest year-over-year increase since March. Stores reporting GREAT numbers included...AEOS +31.7% BEBE +30.6% PLCE +21% ***At the close on Friday the price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 index was 21.36. ***Calendar Of Equity Issues Expected To Price Next Week Initial Offerings: Coinmach Service Corp. - 18.3 million income deposit securities via Merrill Lynch expected some time next week. Price talk: .25 to .75. InPhonic Inc. - 7 million shares via Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan expected Monday. Iowa Telecommunications Services Inc. - 15.8 million shares via Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley expected some time next week. Monolithic Power Systems Inc. - 5.5 million shares via Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch expected Thursday. PortalPlayer Inc. - 6.25 million shares via Citigroup and Credit Suisse First Boston expected Thursday. PRA International - 6 million shares via Credit Suisse First Boston and Bear Stearns expected Wednesday. Specialty Underwriters' Alliance Inc. - 12.7 million shares via Friedman Billings Ramsey expected Wednesday. Secondary Or Follow-On Offerings: Audible Inc. (ADBL) - 4.8 million shares via Citigroup expected Wednesday. Coeur D'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) - 2.5 million shares via CIBC World Markets expected Thursday. Esterline Technologies Corp. (ESL) - 3.2 million shares via UBS expected Thursday. Gencorp Inc. (GY) - 7.5 million shares via J.P. Morgan expected Wednesday. Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc. (IMH) - 5 million shares via UBS expected Thursday. Nordic American Tanker Shipping Ltd. (NAT) - 2.7 million shares via UBS expected Wednesday. Portfolio Recovery Associates Inc. (PRAA) - 1.7 million shares via William Blair & Co. expected Wednesday and Thursday. PXRE Group Ltd. (PXT) - 4.4 million shares via Credit Suisse First Boston expected Wednesday. Rush Enterprises Inc. (RUSHA) - 10 million shares via Credit Suisse First Boston expected Thursday. Tempur-pedic International Inc. (TPX) - 10 million shares via Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers expected Wednesday. Whiting Petroleum Corp. (WLL) - 8.6 million shares via Merrill Lynch expected some time next week. ***The following contracts were among those announced by the Department of Defense Friday. Electronic Data Systems Corp. (EDS) received a .4 million modification to a fixed-price incentive with award fee contract for the Army's Command Communications Survivability Program Systems Integration Contract. Work is expected to be completed by Sept. 30, 2005. Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., a unit of United Technologies Corp. (UTX), received a .2 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for two UH-60L Black Hawk aircraft. Work is expected to be completed by Dec. 31, 2005. General Dynamics Corp. (GD) received a million increment as part of a 2.6 million cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost-plus-award-fee, and time and materials contract for development of an initial architecture for the Army's Warfighter Information Network Tactical Communication System. Work is slated to be completed by Jan. 9, 2006. General Dynamics' government-systems unit received a .68 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for Common Hardware/Software Items for the Project Manager, Tactical Command and Control Systems Computers and associated peripherals for battlefield commanders. Work is anticipated to be completed by April 10, 2005. ***On Friday the Bush administration Friday rejected a request from 30 members of Congress that it bring a World Trade Organization case against China charging the Asian nation with manipulating its currency to gain unfair trade advantages against the U.S. If you would like to read the whole article it was issued by AP. ***MarketWatch Inc. (MKTW) faces a shareholder class-action lawsuit involving the company's directors and Viacom Inc. This has to do with Viacom, which holds 22% of MKTW shares possibly wanting to submit a bid along with other possibles...Dow Jones, Yahoo and the New York Times. That's it for this week. Next week's update might be a little late because I'm going to the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas, but it will be up by early Sunday evening. Best to all...Doug(IIC) |
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