| Weekend Report |
| March 6, 2005 |
Hello Everyone: The DJIA hits a 3 ½ year high and could be headed for 11,000 although I am of the opinion that we will see some minor resistance in the 10,980’s. Of the 36 major indices I look at every weekend only the Naz 100 was down for the week…it now stands at -6.2% YTD. Even the Internet Index was positive for a change. The Naz is still trading in a range which I continue to believe is healthy. The 50 sma has been declining and now stands at 2083. We were unable to cross the 50 sma on 2/15 and on 3/2. Maybe the third time is a charm? We stand just above both the 5 and 21 sma’s which offer support. If you follow the Advance/Decline Oscillators you will notice some conflicts between the 3, 5, 10 and 12 day graphs. But the 30 day indicates Intermediate term upside. I hate to sound wishy-washing but I’m neutral on the Naz Composite until we can get past 2100 on volume. For the week, the A/D/U issues were encouraging. DJIA 20/10/0, DJ Comp. 50/15/0. Transportations led the way up 3.2%. The NYSE was 2273/1225/80, AMEX 631/416/62 and the Naz was 1767/1568/79. However the A/D/U on the Naz was only positive on Tuesday and Friday. The IIC 100 and the Undiscovered Gems lists have been updated for March(See Table of Contents over to the left). I added a new feature this week. Not very apropos for a site called Mr. Breakout, but I have listed the most Oversold stocks I could find just under the “Generally bullish short term technicals” list below. Also, for those of you who know me from various Forums/Chats on the net, you may have seen another new list I have been posting called Zombie Pix. These are stocks that appear to be reversing from a deep oversold condition….perhaps “Rising From The Dead”…hence the name Zombie Pix. It is purely a technical scan and does not consider fundamentals. I will track these for a month or two to see how they perform. I run a new scan nightly. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles CEPH DRS EPIC ISLE ULTI UNA WTZ TNP MAD OMM Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: FARO RVSN SMMX SORC Flat Bases/Low Volume MSTR NLS PDX POS SMTS HPOL IDR AGO SAM SBAC SNR DDD NVT PR RUBO LNG WCC THOR MLI Also watch: NCRX PNN LNC HEW MSFT PRV IED ADVNB 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma THOR ATN KSS RSI(14) moves upward through 30 SGM IFC MED NAVR RAE GSLI BLKB HPOL CUB RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover SWK WL AEP CHC MHX FBR CRE HME MOH TM SFI BBG BRKL RKH CBSS CAG WIT ARTG Generally bullish short term technicals WTSLA GCS CTSH TOY CRI CPE PQUE ARS EWY Extremely Oversold OSIP BDY DPH CKC LEA NTEC FOB FMXI BIIB ELN LF Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV ABLE PCU QSII CFCI E WLT GIL MON WY ASEI DATA TEX ESE HNT EQIX TTWO BF ARD LPX AVD IMO PEG VAW BBSI NXY NCS FLIR IYM ALY PDE EVST GHL IIF GSOL ADES CRYP CRI BLL MBR SMVA ISYS LKI PHI WACLY TTEC IYE BFB MOV UBS AXYS WPPGY CRNS MMR FFBH ASR SRA EIX MCX UCL PHELK BASI PRFT HSII DPTR EWD GEOI ACY CSPLF EWQ MT ASHW MSSN FFLC ROCM ESRX WLM NGA PQUE GCS IF PRLS TZIX CKH FZN TGS IXJ GMK MDS MYE LRT BZL GIFI XLP CGN RMI PGE XNR WSTM FNX NGS RADS NGT PTA Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. I posted Friday’s at http://www.reedfloren.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=32&st=1515 You will need to scroll down. Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch Here’s a nice basic tutorial regarding what the stock market is all about http://www.investopedia.com/university/stocks Many of you may have heard of the Ice Man. Well, he also runs a free site with some interesting analysis at http://www.icecoldstocks.net You could probably spend the rest of your life at this site and never read it all, but it is pretty interesting http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com On Friday I thought I knew what the Employment numbers meant…but after reading several articles I am thoroughly confused…Maybe one of you can interpret all this and let the rest of us in on it http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm http://www.bls.gov/cps/ces_cps_trends.pdf And don't forget to check out the new listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com This 'N That *** Barron’s announced its rankings of Online Brokers…Here are the results in descending order(Best to Worst). Browser Based: optionsXpress, Ameritrade Apex, Fidelity Investments, E-Trade/Power E-Trade, Wall Street Electronica, Muriel Siebert, Schwab Active Trader, Schwab, TD Waterhouse Trade Ctl., E-Trade/Priority E-Trade, Brown & Co., HarrisDirect, Scottrade, Firstrade, TD Waterhouse, Freetrade, Foliofn,WeelsTrade. Software Based: Interactive Brokers, Terra Nova Trading, Tradestation, thinkorswim, MB Trading, ChoiceTrade, RushTrade, CyberTrader, Preferred Trade, AB Watley, TrackData/TrackTrade, TrackData/myTrack. ***Same Store Sales(SSS) were announced for February a few days ago. Overall, BTM’s survey showed a 4.9% increase which is the highest since May 2004. The consenus was 3.0-3.3%. However, it lags the February ’04 SSS figure which was 6.8%. Notable results were reported by AEOS +32.4%(Which will split 2/1 at the close on 3/7), BEBE +25.3% and PLCE +24%. There will be quite a few Earnings reports for Apparel retailers coming out this week and I think we will hear some increased guidance coming from many. Here is a list of some that will announce this week: CLE MW BWS STGS PLCE ARO URBN. Another SSS report of note came from WTSLA +16.4%. This company has been quite a disaster story which I don’t have time to reiterate here. But 4 CEO’s in less than 2 years, an SEC inquiry into ’04 earnings and a price drop from a high of 26.19 in April 2002 down to .69 last August…need I say more??? But, the price now stands at 3.65 and I am bullish on the prospects here. ***PENN splits 2/1 after the close on 3/7/05 ***Domestic car and light truck sales were down in February while imports were up. General Motors -12% and Ford -7.5%. ***More confusing info on the employment situation: WASHINGTON (MktNews) - There were 108,387 layoff intentions announced in February, up 17% from 92,351 in January, job placement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. said in a report released Wednesday. Data are not seasonally adjusted. The February level was 40% above the 77,250 layoffs announced in February 2003. The jump in the number of layoff intentions was attributed to a surge in merger and acquisition activity which accounted for 43% or 46,977 of the cuts announced in February. The largest number of announced layoff intentions in February were in telecommunications (33,270). This far outpaced the next two largest categories which were transportation (12,188) and consumer products (11,627). Corporate hiring intentions were up for a fourth consecutive month in February with a total of 41,984 compared to 29,832 planned job adds in January. The bulk of the increase was in retail (28,800). John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas said, "The level of job-cutting activity in February certainly flies in the face of all the economic reports suggesting a job market turnaround. After all, employers created 2.2 million jobs last year, help wanted ads are increasing and the number of people experiencing long-term unemployment is dropping." "However, the numbers do not necessarily mean the job market or the economy are backsliding. In fact, the cuts are probably more indicative of an energized economy that is continuing to build momentum," Challenger added. ***The International Securities Exchange will IPO on 3/8/05 with the ticker symbol ISE. ***Johnson & Johnson Stent Study Falls Short http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050306/health_heart_reality_2.html ***CSCO should get a boost as this week’s Barron’s feature. ***OPEC Says Worried By High Prices, But Mkt Well Supplied OPEC formally expressed concern about the past month's sharp rise in oil prices and reiterated its commitment to stable markets in a press release Sunday, a move that likely rules out an output cut at the group's March 16 meeting in Iran. But the release, issued in the name of OPEC President and Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad Fahad Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, says prices have shot up even as markets are well supplied and crude oil inventories are above average and growing, which indicates the group also is reluctant to formally increase output at this time. In a further indication of that thinking, OPEC blamed spiking prices on the late cold snap in the Northern Hemisphere, refinery outages and bottlenecks, expectations that oil demand will remain strong this year, concerns that non-OPEC producers aren't boosting output fast enough and increased investment in commodities by speculators - all elements beyond the group's control. The press release put the group's current output at 29.5 million barrels a day and said that was sufficient to meet demand. "OPEC is concerned about this price development despite the fact that the market is well-supplied and global crude oil stocks have continued to build, now standing above their five-year average," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its release. "Currently, we are monitoring closely the market and on March 16th, when our Ministerial Conference next meets in Isfahan, the Islamic Republic of Iran, we shall review the prevailing market outlook to ensure market stability at reasonable price." A month ago, OPEC's concern was how to tighten supply enough to keep commercial petroleum inventories from getting too full without triggering another upward spiral in oil prices. At its January meeting in Vienna, OPEC ministers expressed concerns the market was becoming oversupplied but opted to put off a decision until market given prevailing high oil prices. Since then, a strong end to the Northern Hemisphere's winter that coincided with refinery maintenance season, combined with cutbacks OPEC made at the New Year, have tightened oil markets. Prices have shot up by more than 20% in the past four weeks, topping $55 a barrel again in New York last week for the first time in four months. Underlying the price rally are concerns that growing demand for oil will strain suppliers' ability to provide it later this year. While demand growth is expected to be weaker than last year's searing pace, the U.S. Department of Energy expects it to outstrip growth in non-OPEC production. This view has helped pull new money from institutional investors like pension funds into the oil market in increasing volumes, analysts including those at Barclays Capital have said. Answering such concerns, OPEC said in its release that its members have accelerated plans to boost production capacity. The group's spare capacity now stands at more than 2 million barrels a day and should exceed 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year, with further expansions to come, the group said in its release. "OPEC is committed to maintaining stability and ensuring that global markets remain well supplied at all times," the group said. ***And an EPS calendar http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html Good Luck To All, Doug (IIC) |
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