| Weekend Report |
| March 27, 2005 |
Hi Everyone: The Feds changed their tune from “With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low” to “With underlying inflation expected to be contained” and they removed “for the next few quarters” "The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability [for the next few quarters] to be roughly equal." in the March 22 statement. The CPI came in at the high side .4%...A blip or an indication of things to come? The Naz Composite was down 16 pts. for the week. As I mentioned last week, the technicals looked bad. But now we seem to be oversold so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very short term upswing. We are less than 2 pts below the 200 sma so if we can get past that on some volume there may be some brief trading opportunities. If not, we may see 1971, which was the high on October 6th after the run from 1750. These types of highs often offer support. If 1971 can’t hold…I suggest a vacation might be in order. On a positive note for the Naz, the short term Overbought/Oversold Oscillator turned up late in the week and it appears that the short term Up/Down Volume Moving Average may be reversing. The RSI(2) and RSI(5) turned up also. The 12 day A/D Issues Oscillator is the lowest I ever remember seeing it on the NYSE…so that could be an indication that we may see a bounce. But on a negative note, the short term New High/New Low ratio went negative on the NYSE on Thursday and is at it’s lowest since August…This is very similar to the situation I described on the Naz last Sunday. For the 35 Major Indices I follow, only one was positive for the week…NYSE Healthcare. And in fact, there are numerous Health Related stocks that look pretty good. Short Interest hit record highs in March. I updated the Naz Short Interest page(In the TOC over to the left) and I posted a link in the This ‘N That section below. Up/Down volume on the Naz for the week was positive 3 out of 4 days. But Tuesday’s was so bad that Down volume slightly led Up volume for the week. A/D issues was bad though for the week at 1174/2139/77. The NYSE was worse at 729/2778/72 and the AMEX was 258/781/60. The DJIA was 4/26/0 and the DJ Composite was 16/49/0. Of the ten (10) DJ Super Sectors, only Healthcare was positive last week. The Top Three DJ Groups were Food Retailers/Wholesalers +2.6%, Computer Services +2.3% and Railroads +1.7%. The worst group was Platinum and Precious Metals -11.2%. For the year, Oil and gas Exploration and Coal still lead the way +22.1% and +16.8% respectively. But they were hit hard last week…Oil and Gas Exploration -3.7% and Coal -4.4%. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles HDWR ARO CNTY HXL JBX LPMA OMM OSG Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: RVSN SORC Flat Bases/Low Volume PRV VAST WGAT ENWV MACR CYBX CULS RESP UAG Also watch: IDR WSTC GDT TWI WC TIWI 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma ENTG DTSI RDY PGI PBY RSI(14) moves upward through 30 FS BIIB AGP MSFT PSD SAX ALGN POTP FMXI MRVC CYTO ABS SONO NWEC PETM MRX KRON CDIC CGTK HKF SCUR LGND CYPB WIRE MDTL RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover MIPS XRTX LNY SYY MIL OMN Generally bullish short term technicals RIMG HMA Extremely Oversold IPCR TNL WHI SIR CHP IGT AVCI NTEC GLFD DYAX XING ADPT Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV HANS FMC CHTT GAP SNHY DRI CUO PRPX NUCO CMTL WGII APCC PRGS DNR SNY CTHR RMCF SVC NXTP UNAM FTG PRZ CGN FCFC ROL Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch I have mentioned this one before…But I just want to remind you that if you are looking for Canslim type ideas, this site offers a great value: GabrielsMoneyPage.com We now have over 500 Financial Site listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com Tax time is just around the corner…Need Federal and State forms? http://taxes.yahoo.com Many sites have industry group listings…Here is a free one: http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?base=industry Forbe’s list of the best large companies: http://www.forbes.com/2004/12/22/05platinumland.html Key Economic Indicators: http://smartmoney.com/economywatch/?nav=DropTabs  This 'N That ***Last Chance…IRS holding billions in old, unclaimed tax refunds http://biz.yahoo.com//brn/050325/2641_1.html ***This one is getting a lot of coverage over the weekend from various sources: http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/11221042.htm ***US markets were closed Friday…but Tokyo was open: http://trimurl.com/10L ***I hope nobody held LEXR over: http://trimurl.com/10M ***Here is an excerpt from the March 21st issue of Momentum Strategies Report…”Ultimately, an increase in stock-market volatility is a function of cross-currents created by cycles that are bottoming and peaking simultaneously or at close intervals”…Hey, I thought we were supposed to be using the KISS method…LOL ***Short Interest reaches record highs: http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/24/markets/nasdaq_nyse.reut/index.htm A few stocks that now have over 60 days to cover are: OCA, Inc., SCO Group and Fairfax Financial. ***Yahoo authorizes a $3 billion buyback over 5 years ***Mortgage rates top 6% http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3101034 This may hurt sales because some will be priced out on loans, however, this may stimulate buying before rates rise again as they are still historically low…Guess we’ll find out next month. *** Teva Pharmaceutical Receives Tentative Approval From FDA For Amlodipine Besylate Tablets - Update [TEVA] 3/27/2005 6:01:21 AM Sunday, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA) said the FDA has granted tentative approval for its ANDA for Amlodipine Besylate Tablets, 2.5 mg, 5 mg and 10 mg. According to the company, the brand product has annual sales of about $2.4 billion. Teva's Amlodipine Besylate Tablets are the AB-rated generic equivalent of Pfizer's Norvasc Tablets. This product is indicated to treat hypertension, chronic stable angina and vasospastic angina. The company expects final approval upon expiration of patent protection on September 25, 2007. ***Doesn’t look too promising for CitiGroup: Fed Bars Citigroup from New Acquisitions - Associated Press (Mar. 18) Report Deepens Citigroup's Woes in Parmalat Case - Wall Street Journal Online (Mar. 18) Former Citigroup Executive Given Wells Notice - Reuters (Mar. 18) German Prosecutors Won't Probe Citigroup - Associated Press (Mar. 21) Citigroup to Pay $20 mln to Settle SEC Charges - Reuters (Mar. 23) *** Amazon.com Knows, Predicts Shopping Habits http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050327/your_amazon_dossier.html?.v=2 *** Law Helps Protect Troops From Creditors http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050326/soldier_assistance.html?.v=1 *** A few stock splits that go Ex this week: QSII MCRI BTU all 2/1 and OPTN COG both 3/2 *** Easter Bunny claims he was assaulted by 12-year-old boy at Michigan mall http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/WeirdNews/2005/03/25/972271-ap.html ***And an EPS calendar http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html Happy Easter, Doug (IIC) |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |