| Weekend Report |
| March 20, 2005 |
Hi All: As I mentioned last week, the technical indicators I follow indicated short-term downside. Now they look even worse. I can’t call the bottom, but I would not be surprised to see us pierce 1970 on the Naz. The short-term new high/low ratio on the Naz turned negative Friday. This is the first time this has happened since early July when the ratio remained negative for about 6 weeks. The short-term A/D issues and volume oscillators went negative the week before last. With the FOMC announcement coming up on Tuesday we may see a hit if they drop the term “Measured’ from their speech. One unnamed newspaper continually prints that this confirmed rally is under pressure. That’s sort of strange…What Rally???...We are right where we were on November 3rd on the Naz…Maybe I was absent on the day the rally happened??? From a technical standpoint we are at the lower Bollinger Band…Some may think this means a bounce on the Naz. Unfortunately, the band is widening which is negative and with other OB/OS indicators negative it is my opinion that the 10 day sma vs. the 21 day sma is more telling at this point. But there are always opportunities…check for groups moving up and try to identify the strongest of the strong. We have been discussing this very thing at a couple of forums I moderate and I think it is sage advice. Overall volume on Friday was the 2nd highest of the year behind 1/4/05 and the weekly volume on the NYSE was the highest since the week of 10/11/02. The NYSE weekly volume was 6.5% higher than the prior week. This is not a very good sign on a down week, however, the combination of quadruple witching and the start of the S & P weighting re-shuffle probably had something to do with it. The average volume on the S&P 500 was 59% more than the ADV on Friday. For the week, the only major indices that closed up were the DJIA Utilities, NYSE Energy and the AMEX Composite. Top DJ groups were Coal, Broadcast and Entertainment and Integrated Oil & Gas. The Dow Jones lists 100 groups…29 were up for the week. The weekly A/D/U’s for issues was Naz: 1201/2139/71, NYSE: 1130/2368/76, AMEX: 278/781/56(which is surprising since the AMEX closed up), DJIA: 8/22/0 and the DJ Composite: 22/42/1 After hours volume was unusually heavy Friday at over 191 million shs traded. The A/D/U issues was 751/1440/1119 but the A/D volume was almost 2/1 to the upside. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles LPMA OMM OSG WTZ EPEX HXL HDWR Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: RVSN SORC Also watch two I listed last week that tried to break out: CHTT JBX MAD was also listed last week but it has a very low handle Flat Bases/Low Volume CLCT OZRK PDX POS PRV TWI WCN GDT UN ABXA VAST APPX Also watch: IDR WSTC 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma AVP OCR OLG SMH RVI PLUG CLK SNCI RSI(14) moves upward through 30 ISON CRGN BIVN LCRD WFII SCSC BIO EYET CSH CYPB ORGN EPIX CBR NYNY RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover PTN CBIZ HTCH VIAC Generally bullish short term technicals MOVI ALDA Extremely Oversold DPH GM DRL FMXI Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV CKXE ADBE VPI CTMI ASCA SCHL MOVI NIHD WACLY UFPT MCX USEG CVR CRK WAG ABLE PRGS EGN CTHR HOS CDR ABCO FCBP ARB USU DYS GMT GY GBND CTO FFBC ODP SRR GEFB AMPL GOT RJF CWBS AVSR AIR WW D EEFT ARRO RVI CBRL HLEX LDG ARD Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch 5 yr. CD rates are up to 5% at USAA Federal Savings and Pentagon FCU. For more about all types of rates http://Bankrate.com Ever been to a Money Show or trader’s Expo? I went to Chicago last June and Las Vegas last November to the shows. I wouldn’t recommend making a special trip just to see the shows, but if you can combine it with some other things then you may want to consider it. The next one is in Las Vegas in early May http://LasVegasMoneyShow.com Free education for traders. http://www.tradingacademy.com I’m not really sure how good this is and you do have to sign up. But you can get a taste of what they offer without registering here http://www.fxstreet.com/education/financial/trading/techindicators.asp With all this talk about inflation…I got to thinking about deflation. Here is a little article that explains it http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Articles/Deflation.asp Phishing and Pharming http://www.antiphishing.org And don't forget to check out the new listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com This 'N That ***Don’t forget…The markets are close this Friday for Good Friday http://www.nyse.com/Frameset.html?displayPage=/about/1022963613686.html ***The FOMC is expected to raise rates on Tuesday .25. The announcement is scheduled for 2:15pm EST. Talk is that they will delete the term “Measured” in their statement. Be cautious!!! ***CPI will be announced on Wednesday…Consensus is .3% ***Beazer Homes will split 3/1 and Activision 4/3 at the close on Wednesday ***Sears and Kmart shareholders vote on the proposed merger on Thursday ***After hours on Friday Sirna Theraputics..Symbol: RNAI jumped 36.3% on volume. The COO quit on Thursday but there are rumors all over the place on this one. I’m not one to start rumors…but could it all be a mistake??? http://www.rxpgnews.com/article_702.shtml ***China International Capital Corp. was hired to prepare Industrial & Commercial Bank of China for what will probably be a record $10 billion share sale next year. They have over $640 billion in assets. ***Highlights of rising and falling U.S. stocks http://biz.yahoo.com//cbsm/050318/b6ae792b64c94df0996b01638b00752b_5.html ***IMF Chief: High Oil Prices to Continue for Two More Years on Rising Demand, Supply Constraints http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050320/india_imf_oil_5.html ***Despite market's history, stocks are still a gamble http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/money/216637_gamble19.html ***Dozens of New Wal-Mart Supercenters Delayed by Environmental Lawsuits in California http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050320/challenging_wal_mart_2.html ***Hong Kong Banks to Raise Interest Rates, Deciding Not to Wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve http://trimurl.com/ZI ***Hot Commodities http://trimurl.com/ZJ ***Don’t mistake V shaped patterns for Cup w/ handles http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/050318/corner_1.html ***On a personal note, those that know me know that I traveled to Albuquerque and El Paso last week. I normally check in on the Internet or at the kiosks if I don’t check-in luggage. I could do neither when I left Los Angeles on Wednesday…I was directed to a special window where I had to be identified and screened. I didn’t think much of it until the same thing happened to me in Albuquerque. There I was given a letter from the TSA that states that I am on the TSA Watch list “Of persons who are known to pose, or are suspected of posing, a threat to civil aviation or national security”…That was a bit of a surprise. However, after checking me out they explained that I’m not really the one they are looking for…it is someone else with the same or similar name. I was directed to contact the TSA when I got home for future check-in procedures which will be given to me within 45 days. Glad I found out about this before I left the country…which I plan on doing in September when I go on cruise…I’d hate to not be allowed back in and banished to some exotic Caribbean Island…LOL Has this happened to anyone else? If so, please email me and let me know what this alternate check-in procedure is all about…That is if it’s not a Classified Secret…Thanks ***And an EPS calendar http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html Be careful this week, Doug (IIC) |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |