| Weekend Report |
| February 27, 2005 |
Hello Everyone: We started off the week on Tuesday with the largest point drop on the DJIA since May 2003. The Dow Composite was 1 up and 64 down on Tuesday. But the markets came roaring back and the DJIA looks poised to break 10,900 which it has not seen since June 2001. The overall weekly A/D/U for the DJ Composite was 44/20/1 and it was 18/12/0 for the DJIA. The DJIA was led by CAT and XOM, now the largest capped stock surpassing GE. The Nasdaq tested the 2020-2025 support level twice this past week. It was very encouraging that this level held. Recently I have been suggesting that we might see 1970-1980, but I am neutral on the Naz now and will become bullish if we can blow past 2100. But for now we seem to be trading in a range which is healthy IMO. I would like to see more volume on up days though. The weekly A/D/U for the Naz was 1719/1607/87. We sit just above the 21 sma on the Naz. The 50 sma is now down to 2090. Of course Energy led the way this week with the NYSE Energy Index +4.05%. It is +16.64% YTD. One disturbing thing is the DJ Internet Index which continues to tumble. It is now -15.79% YTD. While the DJIA is keeping its head above water this year the Naz is still down over 5%. In fact, all of the Naz Indices are down YTD. But the SP SC 600 finished the week at an All Time “closing” high and is close to the All Time Intraday high reached on 2/17/05. But maybe there is good news. The Short Interest figures for February were announced a couple of days ago. The Naz Short Interest increased 6.3% to an All Time high. I have updated the Short Interest page over to the left in the Table of Contents. If you take a look you will see that I also added the Short Interest figures back to 1999. Short Interest on the NYSE was +3.5% and the AMEX was +7.0%. The Q’s increased even more as I indicate in the “This ‘N That” Section below. Best to be cautious this week as there are numerous announcements. (See Calendar in the TOC to the left) The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles DRS EPIC CEPH CYT ISLE ULTI SNMX HDWR WW WTZ WIND VRNT UNA Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: FARO KOF SMMX SORC SNY RVSN There is one stock that has 2 CwH’s. You can see one on a daily chart and another on a weekly chart: STD Also, some of the Indices have CwH patterns: DJIA SP400 SP500 SP600. I’m not a firm believer that this pattern means as much to an Index as it does on individual securities. Plus, I don’t think you’ll see an Index break out on volume which is 50%+ over ADV. But it is interesting. Flat Bases/Low Volume ALSK MCGC MSTR NCRX NLS PDX PNN POS RECN SMTS SNE Additionally, GYI has a flat base, although the volume is not real low…but combined with a favorable article in yesterday’s Barron’s it could move on Monday. 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma NGAS CSLR PFGC BCSI RSI(14) moves upward through 30 FNM OSIP OATS ZIXI ADS KRB IMH HE WJCI MANU PSD VECO RNVS ADIC PLNR OCN MDTV DRRA CTRX AMTD ENZN ECLP ILSE RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover EXP ROL KEM KNSY ALK KFY DCLK OLGC BSG HMT DT BPFH LEG URS HCR Generally bullish short term technicals MOVI BRY ARS TOY WTSLA Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV GREY JLG APC MTH TS PHM RY ATLRS BOOM TXI LENB FDG MT IGE SNP PQE PKX ECA CNX ATI COP XOM CRK IPS WGR PTR CRYP MCX MUSA IYE ELV VDE PBR USU CENX HSII DVN CLB GMXR WRNC BP SFCC EPL HUBB E TIE JRCC XXIA N RESC PEBK KFX WFR NRT WLB VAW ACTY JCP JOYG HCC BHP HUBA BSRR IYM HORC FCEB REXI IWD ZAP ANST USEG CEE RTI AXA BEAV SC STRZ DER ATRI TESOF NRD WSTM MECA GLBL WLM EMF CPE APF NETC IPR IAAI FTEK DA KNDL PRVT GGB SOSA PQUE BZL PKD SID HFFC ACDO SM ICA GW ATRO AMAC HOLL KEF TRRA CULS Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. I posted Friday’s at http://www.reedfloren.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=32&st=1500&#entry14409 Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch As I mentioned elsewhere, the short interest for February has been announced. Here is a site that you can use to find out info about specific stocks. It is a paid site, however you can use the Short Quote section for free. I’m not sure when they update as I just checked and the numbers are still for January. http://shortsqueeze.com This sounds like a place you go to lose weight…LOL…But, the owners of Canslim.net have opened up a new forum called http://CampCanslim.com Interested in ETF’s??? http://etfzone.com Here’s a nice little technical site that a friend of mine posted at one of the Forums I am in the other day. You can get some interesting info without registering. http://www.neurobroker.com/tradestudio.aspx Do you like the lists that Forbes publishes? You don’t have to subscribe. Just visit this site: http://www.forbes.com/lists News overload: http://world-newspapers.com Taking a trip to a foreign country? Use this handy currency converter http://www.xe.com And don't forget to check out the new listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com This 'N That ***The Nasdaq announces EPS and issues guidance http://www.nasdaq.com/newsroom/news/pr2005/ne_section05_023.stm ***Greenspan testifies this coming Wednesday. ***The following stocks have a large number of Short Interest days to cover: PPD AKSY BUCA NRMX IQW It is also interesting to note that the Short Interest on the QQQQ increased by 12.5% to 15% depending on who has the correct figure. ***As everyone knows the January CPI was announced last week. The previous 12 months saw an unadjusted increase of 3%. In Southern California it was over 4%. ***Barron’s painted a rather gloomy picture for banks on pressure to raise rates and possible tighter regulation of fees. I was surprised to read that the percentage of income from fees for banks is as high as 82%. The Naz Banking Index is -5.39% YTD. ***Of the original SP 500 the following companies have had the highest “annual” % return since 1957: Altria +19.8% Abbott Labs +16.5% and Bristol Myers Squibb +16.4%. ***Some stocks set to split in March: AVTI (4/3), QSII (2/1) and OPTN which broke out nicely from a Cup w/ Handle pattern this past week (3/2) ***My friend, Reed Floren, has become very popular with his Stock Market forum. Here is a copy of a recent Press Release: http://www.reedfloren.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1228 ***Sears, which has been listed on the NYSE since 1910 with the symbol “S” announced that they are moving to the Nasdaq per USA Today. ***Everyone knows that oil has been rising recently. Almost 10% in 3 weeks: West Texas Cash Oil closes: 2/4...$46.49, 2/11..$47.17, 2/18..$48.36, 2/25..$50.95 ***Where the indexes stand compared with their all-time highs, reached in early 2000: The Dow is 881.38, or 7.52 percent, below its peak of 11,722.98 on Jan. 14, 2000. The S&P 500 is 316.09, or 20.69 percent, below its peak of 1,527.46 on March 24, 2000. The Nasdaq is 2,983.22, or 59.09 percent, below its peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000. ***Here is a 3 page article on IRA’s that appeared on Thursday: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=524838&page=1 ***OPEC May Keep Same Output Limits http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050227/energy_opec_qatar_1.html ***ExxonMobil, Qatar to Launch $12.8B Natural-Gas Project to Provide Fuel to Britain for 25 Years http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050227/qatar_natural_gas_2.html ***And an EPS calendar http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html That’s it for this week. Doug (IIC) |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |