| Weekend Report |
| April 3, 2005 |
Hi Everyone: Goldman Sachs issues an irresponsible statement…at least in my opinion...although I admit, I didn't actually read their report…Oil closes at record highs…although that may change as OPEC announced more production increases yesterday(see below)…Domestic Auto sales rise, although Ford’s declined, but imports increase at a much higher rate. The jobs report comes out pre market but at 10am the ISM report is announced and the market tanks. So what is there to be bullish about??? Well, it was encouraging that the 1970 Naz support area held. I think we may test it again…but if it holds, I believe we may be headed back to 2030 or higher. The short-term technicals I follow indicate that there is a strong possibility that this could happen, especially when I look at the weekly charts on the Naz. Before I get real thrilled about the SPY…I’d like to see a 10/21 sma crossover. However, Earnings Season is fast approaching and since April is historically the best month of the year(see below) coupled with the fact that the Fed's added $9 billion to the Repo Pool on 3/30/05, I’m moderately bullish this month. For the week, the A/D/U’s were DJIA 13/17/0 DJIA Composite 29/36/0, Naz 1403/1931/68, NYSE 1977/1538/64, AMEX 503/554/61. Major Indices that closed up for the week included: DJ Utilities, DJ Internet, Naz Industrials, Naz Banks, Naz NMM Inustrials, NYSE and AMEX Composites, NYSE Energy, SP 500, SP400. Of the Ten(10) DJ Super Sectors, Consumer Goods, Healthcare, Industrials, Technology, Telecommunications and of course, Oil and Gas were all up for the week. The top 3 DJ groups were Oil/Exploration-Production, Internet, Oil/Equipment-Services. The 3 worst were Full-Line Insurance, Platinum/Precious Metals, Electrical Equipment. A group I have been bullish on lately is Hospitals. I mentioned Healthcare last week…Maybe they are rising because of all the “Blood on Wall Street” lately…just kidding! Well, as usual, I recommend extreme caution until the market turns up…Simply holding at 1970 is not enough. Until it does though, there seems to be some good short term possibilities. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles ARO HDWR HXL JBX LPMA OMM OSG MROI Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: RVSN SORC Flat Bases/Low Volume AVL VTAL EXBD APPX BUTL IDR RESP TIWI TWI WGAT VAST MAD AEC LGF MCRI SRX PETC 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma XLNX GTK RSI(14) moves upward through 30 ANSI AGCC CERS MTRX ILE IWOV TALX TIV RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover SAPE LNT PPC LEN EPD DPL CIG NWRE CKN Generally bullish short term technicals LEG SNHY Extremely Oversold CGTK CENF KG WAT TEK TTEK RUS NFLD ELN NTEC Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV TMI PHEL PRPX FSTR SKS CHTT KNOT GTIM SILCF ESLR AIX BDOG FLOW NGS GPN TFF GEAC FTG ABP NMGB ENER SYNM INT HAWK TPL GBR PTC HWG PCO TSO EENC UCL SIMC DNB SNHY Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch This site was brought to my attention by a friend in one of the Forums I’m in…Historically, the worst day of the week for the markets is Monday…Combine this with the historically worst day of the year which is April 4th and you’ve got tomorrow. http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/nasdaq-day.htm http://www.vtoreport.com/nasdaq/updown-bestworstdays.htm While you are at it, check out the other intesting stuff at this site. I got this one from Tokyo Joe http://Newsdigger.com I got this one from another friend at a Forum…You all know GuruNet (GRU) http://www.answers.com I have mentioned the Fed Repo Pool at a couple of Forums and above…In case you are wondering what it is, check out these sites http://www.ny.frb.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed04.html http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci9-6.pdf I have listed other sites before…But here is one to check the futures http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html The origin of April Fool’s Day http://dictionary.reference.com/features/aprilfools.html Save on airfare with Southwest Airlines new “Ding” program http://www.southwest.com/ding I have mentioned this one before…But I just want to remind you that if you are looking for Canslim type ideas, this site offers a great value: GabrielsMoneyPage.com We now have over 500 Financial Site listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com  This 'N That ***Earnings Season is about to kick into high gear http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html ***April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. raised their forecasts for Federal Reserve interest- rate increases because of concern inflation is accelerating. http://trimurl.com/12F ***Why don’t these guys just give up?... FBI Joins Probe Of Delphi Accounting Problems http://trimurl.com/12E ***I have talked about this before…Soaring Number of Clothing Shipments From China Raising Concerns About U.S. Textile Jobs http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050403/textile_battle.html?.v=1 ***30 year mortgages hit 8 month high http://news.findlaw.com/ap/f/66/03-31-2005/4918001068fc65dc.html ***More than you ever wanted to know about Martha Stewart http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050403/martha_s_month.html?.v=4 ***History is on investors' side. The Stock Trader's Almanac says April has been the best month for the Dow average since 1950. ***Cash-heavy ETF newsletter sees signs of U.S. stock rally http://trimurl.com/12G ***Toyota Motor And Nissan`s US Car Sales Rise Close To 17% Versus 4.6% By The Industry 4/3/2005 6:30:53 AM Toyota Motor Corp and Nissan Motor Co posted record high sales of new vehicles in the United States in March as overall U.S. auto sales rose 4.6% from a year earlier to 1,576,828 units for the first growth in three months, according to a report released Friday by Autodata Corp., Toyota's overall sales gained 16.7% from a year earlier to 203,223. Its hybrid Prius passenger car more than doubled its sales to a record 10,236 units. Nissan's sales climbed 16.9% to 105,804 units in March, with its yearly sales in the United States topping one million units for the first time in fiscal 2004 through Thursday, making it the third Japanese automaker to surpass the level after Toyota, Japan Today reported quoting Kyodo News. ***NASDAQ Welcomes Sears Holdings Corporation http://www.nasdaq.com/newsroom/news/pr2005/ne_section05_035.stm ***The DJIA has risen 4.8% avg. annually since it first hit 100 in1906. In the last 19 years the avg. has been almost 9% yr. ***The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is considering a further increase of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to offset hikes in oil prices, OPEC president Sheikh Ahmed Al Fahd Al Sabah said in Kuwait city Saturday. Al-Sabah, who is also Kuwait's oil minister, made the remarks to reporters on the sidelines of the European-Gulf Energy Seminar, which opened Saturday. The OPEC will increase its overall production ceiling by 500,000bpd to meet expected world demand, he said, adding "for sure, there will be an increase in the third quarter and fourth quarter, and the increase will start from May." Oil prices have soared anew and the OPEC has to start a new round of negotiations, he stressed. During its meeting in Isfahan, Iran, last month, the OPEC increased its production ceiling by 500,000 to 27.5 million bpd, and provided for another 500,000 bpd increase if crude prices didn't stabilize. Prices have continued climbing to record levels as crude futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed Friday up 1.87 US dollars, or 3.4 percent, at 57.27 dollars a barrel. Source: Xinhua ***One Day Wonder http://trimurl.com/12H ***COH splits 2/1 at the close Monday ***Spring Forward…Most of us are on Daylight Savings Time now…Here is a little history on DST http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/entertainment/11280014.htm Good Luck To All!!! Doug (IIC) |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |