| Weekend Report |
| April 24, 2005 |
Hi Everybody: What a rollercoaster ride we had this past week. There are tons of examples as everyone knows, but let’s take the A/D/U issues for the DJ Transports as an example: Monday 17/2/1 Tuesday 15/5/0 Wednesday 1/19/0 Thursday 20/0/0 Friday 0/20/0. I’ve heard from a lot of people this weekend who are encouraged by the close on Friday. But I’m not one of them. I wouldn’t be surprised if we closed up on Monday and maybe even Tuesday, but I’m not counting on a very good GDP report on Thursday. Now, I have not gotten around to enrolling in Economics 101 yet, but all this talk about Stagflation has me a bit concerned. I posted a link to a Stagflation article below in the This ‘N That section. The Annualized CPI is now 3.1% and Southern California is 4.0%. I expect it to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Sort of reminds me of a saying I’ve heard somewhere…”Having a little inflation is like being a little pregnant”. I don’t follow the Closing Tick much, but it is interesting to note that each day this week on the Naz when the Tick was – the Naz closed up the next day and when it was + it closed down the following day. On Friday the Naz Tick was -404. I thought it was supposed to work the other way around. Just another indication that this is a very dangerous market IMO. Top Groups for the week were Coal, Internet, RE Holdings/Development…The worst were Consumer Finance, Platinum/Precious Metals, Recreational Products. Of the 10 DJ Super Sectors 7 were up and 3 were down for the week. Of the Major Indices the DJ Internet and NYSE Energy Indices were both up over 4% for the week. Healthcare cooled off a bit with the exception of Biotech. Here are the A/D/U issues for last week: Naz 1741/1574/76, NYSE 2171/1330/79, AMEX 596/467/58 DJIA 14/16/0, DJ Transports 11/9/0, DJ Utilities 15/0/0. The 10 day new High/New Low Moving Average on the Naz is looking very bad…similar to last July. The NYSE MA isn’t looking too hot either. Almost all of the technical indicators I watch indicate further downside on the Naz. However, I’m neutral right now and would not be surprised to see us anywhere between 1900 and 2000…Quite a range, but we have been whipsawing so much on every little report that I’m trying to prepare for anything in my short term account. Watch for Existing Home Sales at 10am on Monday…Consensus is 6.75 which would be the lowest since March 2004. Although…maybe March is a traditionally low month??? Actually, the National Association of Realtors is projecting a reduction in all housing indicators through 2006. One interesting thing, to me anyway, is that they actually project a decrease in the CPI…Could it be that they feel housing prices will decrease? I have posted a link to the NAR site below in the Site Watch section. I see a lot of discrepancies in historical numbers from different sources…so I have chosen to believe the NAR numbers. New Home Sales will be announced on Tuesday. But the biggest announcement will be the 1st Quarter GDP Pre-M on Thursday. I posted a GDP site below too. Overall, I believe we are in for some high volatility through 5/3/05 when the next Fed announcement is due. 50 basis points would not be good. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles DWA LB HW INTU JBX MCRS SRX RRGB NOTE: HDWR changed to HW Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: SORC Flat Bases/Low Volume STD ASEI RRGB VTAL SNSA SPTN TIMHY 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma ANIK AEIS RSI(14) moves upward through 30 RNR PXT SCI WHAI ISWI ICGE RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover CAT NTLI CRS HTCH CBG BCRM BG BRKT EPEX AIV TK IPS IO GAB PGIC AF Generally bullish short term technicals BIOI TALX MCIP Extremely Oversold KRB IES INFT RUS Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV HWG CERN ACL VLGEA HTCH CPSI NDAQ HSY FLPB FISV LUFK CTHR PSAI HNI AMHC GOOG RTRSY MAIR FO FORD PLLL PTC FSBK PRSC COBR B TZIX EFX Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch Here is a site filled with tons of information. They also have a forum which I just joined a few days ago. http://www.masteringthemarkets.com Looking for Canslim type ideas? This site offers a great value: GabrielsMoneyPage.com Bored in the middle of the night? Got insomnia? Follow the Japanese markets in real time http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp More news: http://finance.myway.com/ht/nw/topbusiness.html National Association of Realtors Reports http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/EHSdata Thinking of buying a home? Very helpful info here: http://www.freddiemac.com Historical GDP http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrelarchive/2005/gdpind04_fax.pdf Just how many people are there in the world? http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/popclockw You can’t hide!!! Go to this site and input a name. Then click on the address. After that click on the top button. You will see an aerial photo of where they live. I tried 10 people and found 5. http://zabasearch.com A week late: http://www.ira-rules.info We now have over 500 Financial Site listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com  This 'N That ***What is it about these 100 lists??? I guess you can now say “SHORT THE IIC 100” Every month I update the IIC 100…see TOC over to the left. Let’s see how the # 1’s have done: On 10/9 I listed JUPM at 17.58…it is now at 12.88 On 11/6 I listed TZOO and it also came up # 1 in Dec., Jan., and Feb. On 11/6 it was at 90.24. Today it sits at 30.13. On 4/10 I listed TSRA at 44.59. It closed Friday at 32.04. The IIC 100 is a mechanical scan. In a nutshell, I input certain criteria and then run the scan based on recent EPS and projected EPS. ***”I gave her a ring and she gave me the finger” http://www.wpxi.com/money/4409670/detail.html But it all works out in the end http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s8i8091 ***Stocks Face Earnings Flood and GDP http://trimurl.com/15X ***Nasdaq buys Instinet electronic trading arm http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2002250588_nasdaq23.html ***Banks: "Protection" Racket? http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_18/b3931085_mz020.htm ***Online Banking http://trimurl.com/161 ***Utilities face mixed earnings from mild winter http://trimurl.com/15Y ***Greenspan says budget deficits may stagnate US economy http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=88721 ***Stagflation??? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7602530/ ***Stocks That Race Up 20% Quickly Could Be In For Greater Advance http://biz.yahoo.com//ibd/050422/corner.html ***May I See Your Voice, Please? http://trimurl.com/15Z ***Has Youbet.com Picked a Winner? http://trimurl.com/160 ***NASDAQ Announces First Quarter 2005 Results http://www.nasdaq.com/newsroom/news/pr2005/ne_section05_043.stm ***China may speed up reform of currency regime http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/050424/6be39ecc_b4c9_11d9_8df4_00000e2511c8.html?.v=1 ***Earnings Season is well underway http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html Best To All, Doug (IIC) |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |