| Weekend Report |
| April 17, 2005 |
Hi Everybody: Well, this week I might just call myself Mr. Breakdown!!! Once we pierced 1966 it was all over. On a positive note…volume increased…LOL…Those 1yr CD’s at Corus Bank at 4.06% are lookin’ pretty good right about now. I believe it is important to maintain your sense of humor in times like these. Those that know me know that I have been short-term trading long for the last few months on the theory that no matter what the market is doing, there are always some groups moving. Last week was the first week I had the opportunity to trade with the market in such bad shape. I did end red, but it wasn’t too bad. I will continue to practice this philosophy for the foreseeable future…although when the market is really tanking I will be a little more selective. In tracking my daily performance it appears that I do better on days that the market moves slowly up or down. I see Naz support at 1898-1903 and 1867-1877. We are definitely oversold…but that hardly means a quick rebound. Sometimes we remain oversold for an extended period. I was looking at the Naz 5 day A/D issues and see that we are now at -1002. But we were worse in January. The 10 day is at -540. Pretty low, but again we were lower in January and last August. What I would really like to see is the Accumulation/Distribution cross the 14 day moving average…Unfortunately, it is headed in the wrong direction. There are many EPS reports coming out this week…hopefully we will hear some increased guidance. But keep your eyes on the CPI announcement on Wednesday. Consensus is .5 with a range of .2 to .7. I believe anything .4 or less would be a positive for the markets…at least temporarily. Annualized CPI has been steadily rising since September. On Friday some healthcare, biotech and pharma groups were up. For the week, the following were all up over 1%: DJ US Pharmaceuticals Index, DJ US Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology, DJ US Biotechnology Index, DJ US Aerospace & Defense Index, DJ US Water Index and DJ US Health Care Index. Y-T-D… DJ US Distillers & Vintners Index, DJ US Exploration & Production Index, DJ US Oil & Gas Producers Index, DJ US Health Care Providers Index, DJ US Oil & Gas Index, DJ US Drug Retailers Index, DJ US Integrated Oil & Gas Index, DJ US Water Index, DJ US Tobacco Index and DJ US Personal Products Index are leading the way. Here are the A/D/U issues for last week: Naz 639/2680/60, NYSE 961/2566/55, AMEX 281/803/89, DJIA 5/24/1. For Friday the A/D/U’s: Naz 735/2337/158, NYSE 768/2489/142, AMEX 290/630/98, DJIA 5/25/0 DJ Composite 7/58/0 SP 400 42/355/3, SP 500 41/457/2, SP 600 87/506/7 Naz 100 15/85/0. The DJ Utilities was 0/15/0…obviously there are no Water Utilities represented. Well, as usual, I recommend extreme caution…In fact, I may just catch up on some work this week myself…usually when I do that, the market takes off …LOL. The stocks listed below are not recommendations. They are simply securities that meet particular criteria. If you find any of interest, you should do your own research. Cup w/ Handles HW AVL DWA INTU JBX RRGB NOTE: HDWR changed to HW Look at a weekly chart to see the pattern on these: RVSN SORC Flat Bases/Low Volume UL TIMHY UFCS TIWI 50 dma moves upward through 200 dma IVX KDE KO LSCC RSI(14) moves upward through 30 LAB KG VITX GLFD RSI(14) moved upward through 50 AND an MACD crossover SNG Generally bullish short term technicals LNCR OPTN ANX AMHC Extremely Oversold IBM CSH RUS LAVA DPH TEK RGF NCX MSA LEA SCSC Friday's new highs, closed up on at least 2x ADV DNA TALX TKCI CITP TKTX CALC BRN ABT WTR CWCO PRSC BYH BRL WYE IFCJ ANX SNY BMY CPK JH Sectors/Groups Rather than sit here and type all this, I’m just going to give you some sites so those who are interested can check them if they want to. Top Sectors on Friday Worst Sectors on Friday …If you have Dow Jones News you can see these every hour on the hour until the market closes. Top Groups on Friday Worst Groups on Friday …You can view these at http://tal.marketgauge.com/MGHome/PHSReportsIndex.asp Top Indices on Friday Worst Indices on Friday …You can view these at http://americanbulls.com/Indices.asp Top DJ Indices for the week Worst DJ Indices for the week …You can view these at http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/default.asp?siteid=mktw&bcind_ind=bc_top&bcind_period=1wk You can change the timeframe if you wish. Site Watch More news http://smartmoney.com/bn For the politically inclined http://washingtonwatch.com/ww/billlst.php Gasoline prices http://www.oilnergy.com/1gasoli.htm If you do not subscribe to Stockcharts you may want to check out their pre-defined FREE scans http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan For quick reference on Short Sale availability http://www.mastertrader.com/ShortList Here’s some handy little calculators http://property-calculator.com/index.php Looking for Canslim type ideas? This site offers a great value: GabrielsMoneyPage.com We now have over 500 Financial Site listings at FinancialLinksOnline.com  This 'N That ***Major Finance Ministers say World Economy Performing Well http://trimurl.com/153 ***Four Stocks for Monday http://biz.yahoo.com//tm/050415/12528.html ***Lazard's IPO May Be Hazardous http://trimurl.com/154 ***How much did you pay??? http://apnews.myway.com/article/20050415/D89G25PG3.html ***CEO Compensation http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Execpay_ceocomp05.pdf ***IPO Slowdown http://trimurl.com/155 ***S & P P/E stands at 17.03. It has been in a downtrend…On March 15th it stood at 21.60. ***Rates on 30-year mortgages drop Associated Press Apr. 14, 2005 10:55 AM WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages fell for a second straight week as bond investors expressed relief that the Federal Reserve has not grown overly concerned about inflation pressures. In its weekly nationwide survey, mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.91 percent this week, down from 5.93 percent last week. It was the second straight decline since rates at the end of March hit 6.04 percent, the highest they had been since last July. ***CHINESE AUTOMOBILES…SHANGHAI (Reuters) - After decades of riding global car makers' coat-tails and churning out clunky cars few wanted, upstart Chinese firms are flexing their muscles, designing sedans that threaten to engulf world markets. Now, the likes of General Motors Corp. and Toyota Motor Corp. are getting increasingly nervous about the country's vaunted export might, afraid that automotive history -- a la Japan and South Korea -- might repeat itself. Analysts and industry executives call for calm. The Chinese must first deal with poor-quality perceptions -- as even Nissan Motor Co. once had to -- the higher cost of making cars there, endemic intellectual property theft and a serious lack of design savvy, they say. "I'm not sure whether it will take 10, 20 or 30 years, but it's entirely possible that in future we will see Chinese-badged cars being driven on the streets of Japan," said Katsumi Nakamura, president of Nissan's Chinese venture. "They are very ambitious." Indeed, executives convening at next week's Shanghai auto show can expect to be greeted by a flurry of activity from China's car makers: unveiling plans to make own-branded products, pushing cars onto a saturated world market, marketing blitzes. Mainland car makers and foreign partners such as market leader Volkswagen AG have unveiled plans to spend more than $15 billion tripling capacity to over 7 million cars by 2008, sparking fears of a glut. If China fails to become the world's second-biggest car market by 2010, as McKinsey & Co. predicts, the country could suddenly find itself saddled with millions of unsold cars. The idea of Geely or Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp, China's top car maker, mimicking Toyota's or Hyundai Motor Co.'s success is keeping industry chiefs up at night. "If you have all this capacity, you'll have to consider going abroad," said Yale Zhang at consultancy CSM. "This is the route all Chinese companies are going to take, and car makers are no exception. Eventually the market will become saturated." FUELING FEARS A market downturn is fueling fears. After nearly doubling in 2003, car sales growth braked to just 15 percent in 2004 and should grow at an even slower pace in 2005. At the forefront of the burgeoning export push are two companies -- Geely, based in the eastern private enterprise hotbed of Zhejiang, and Chery Automobile Co., accused by GM of copying one of its cars -- a charge it denied. Li Shufu, Geely's ever-ebullient chairman, wants to sell two-thirds of output overseas, though he is coy on when that could happen. Geely hopes to produce 650,000 cars a year by 2007. "We must make cars like people from Wenzhou make lighters," Li told a forum in Beijing last month, referring to the city where a quarter of the world's lighters are made. "But developing a car industry is like growing one tree slowly to cover a whole forest." China is a sapling where cars are concerned: the world's seventh-largest economy exported fewer than 50,000 cars in 2004, mainly to the Middle East and Africa. Now the focus is shifting to the United States, the world's largest auto market. Malcolm Bricklin, the entrepreneur who introduced the Yugo to Americans in the 1980s, plans to sell 250,000 Chery vehicles in the first year starting 2007, undercutting by 30 percent the prices of competing U.S.-made models. And Dutch rally driver and car dealer Peter Bijvelds wants to sell about 2,000 of the first Chinese cars in Europe this year -- Landwind SUVs made by a unit of Jiangling Motors, itself a partner of Ford Motor Co. -- at almost half the price of their nearest comparable competitor. Far-fetched? Perhaps not. Toyota, now the world's second-largest car maker, got off to a troubled start in the United States in the 1960s, and the Koreans' offerings were widely ridiculed in the 1980s. "If 10 years ago you asked whether Toyota was going to be as successful in the U.S. as it is today, many people would have been skeptical," said Clive Saunderson, an Ernst & Young partner. "U.S. car companies are today under threat in their own backyards from the likes of Toyota. Why shouldn't Chinese car companies be able to do the same thing?" LEAP OF FAITH Others point out a lack of research and development skills. "What they can copy is the appearance. They cannot copy the inside technology, like the engine and transmission," said Chuan Tang, an analyst at KGI Securities. Poor logistics and the expense of using imported parts also raises the cost of car making in China. It costs some $10,000 more to buy a Chinese-made Buick Regal compared to the United States. Finally, persuading Europeans and Americans to buy cars made in China, a country known more for shoes, textiles and cheap electronics that have flooded Western markets in recent years, could require a leap of faith. "Passenger vehicles are not like PCs in that design, brand and other value-added factors weigh heavily in a buyer's purchasing decision," said Nissan's Nakamura. "If we're just talking about whether (the Chinese) will be able to build vehicles that can transport people, they'll go a long way. But when it comes to building up a brand, it's going to take a long time." ***Earnings Season is well underway http://www.rightline.net/calendar/index.html Good Luck To All Doug (IIC) |
| Los Angeles | CA | 90034 |