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Paper-Scissors-Rock: A New Poker Strategy (July 12, 1999)

Basically I agree with all that is usually said about a "basic strategy" for poker. However, what has not yet been pointed out clearly is that poker is in some ways similar to the ancient game "Paper-Scissors-Rock." That is to say: any given strategy A can be beaten by another strategy B which can in turn be beaten by another strategy C and which in turn may ironically be beaten by the supposedly "weakest" strategy A !
Therefore the first rule in poker--unless you are quite an advanced player--is simply to "Get out when you are losing." You may be up against a pack of idiots who normally lose, and you may be a better player, but for some reason they just have your number.

What I would like to do, when I have the time, is:

1) Develop three sets of "basic strategy" using computer simulations. One for tight tables, one for average tables, and one for loose tables.

2) There are many possible areas for improvement in "basic strategy." For example, my preliminary tests indicate that the "seating positions" normally used in books and computer programs do not correlate properly. Also: in some cases a weak hand will be profitable if you "raise" with it but will lose money if you "call." Also: much more seldom than is normally advised will you improve your win rate by "re-raising" before the flop. According to my preliminary tests, when such things are taken into account, it will be possible to arrive at a "basic strategy" for starting positions that is both simpler and more accurate than usual.

3) The above process will require at least several dozen simulation printouts which must then be correlated by hand, since the existing programs are not properly designed to do this. This is quick and easy but the time does add up.

4) The next step is to practice the new basic strategy extensively against a variety of robot players, thus finding out just how good it is, and getting a sense for when it best applies.

5) I believe the result will be a poker strategy that is consistent, therefore very learn-able, and quite powerful. One must realize that this is designed to "play against the averages." I.e.--the goal is to design a "basic strategy" that will win against the player you are most likely to encounter. Therefore, if you play in California, you will probably want a somewhat different strategy than in Atlantic City where betting patterns will be different. Furthermore, you will want to "leave the table, pronto" whenever it becomes evident that you are not up against "the typical players." Thus with a similar discipline to playing Blackjack, you can be a consistent poker winner.

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