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Global Warming Facts to Know
Ice age that follows warming
advanced science new discovery
cycles and useful knowledgeClick here please|
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| Ice Age that Follows Global Warming |
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| From hot and Wet To Cold and Ice - The How and Why of this natural cycle - with comments by Professor J H L Lawler 1999 and Lawrence E. Stiers, CFS SCENARIO FOR DOUBLE DISASTER There are 14 or more temperature "spikes" in the time between 10,000 and 50,000 years ago recorded in the glacial ice of Greenland and the Antarctic. These spikes all show a warming of about 10 degrees C in a about one decade followed by a plateau of up to 20 years and then a dramatic cooling of about 20 degrees C in about one to two decades. Some spikes are greater or lesser and exact time values vary, but all are major spikes compared to the stability in the recent 8000 to 10,000 years. We have had less than 2 degrees C maximal change and that over several decades, with generally century long trends rather than any such extreme and rapid changes. What could possibly cause such great swings, other than solar instability! Any postulate of extreme solar instability seems unlikely. There are unquestionably Milankovitch cycles of precession at 23,000 years, tilt at 41,000 years and eccentricity at 100,000 years, and solar sun spot cycles of 10.5 years (or 21 year Hale cycles), plus century long modulations and numerous other cycles. But none are THAT extreme. Looking on earth for major shifts we should first be drawn to the fact that this is very much a water world with about 3/4th of the surface being ocean. The oceans should control the land climates, not visa versa. Thus we must first look to ocean currents, and their effect on land. For example consider the Gulf Stream. That very warm current comes up form the Gulf of Mexico past Florida to New York where it swings out into the Atlantic and eventually conveys its heat and moisture to the North Atlantic, to Germany, Scandinavia, Britain and Northern Europe. It is "pushed" south to some extent by the very cold, iceberg bearing Newfoundland current that circulates north up west the face of Greenland and then swings south along Newfoundland. The mixing zone of these two currents is very rich in marine life. What if that Newfoundland current were stronger, and pushed the warm gulf stream south to warm France and Spain, but leaving Northern Europe cold? THAT would be sufficient to trigger Glaciation! If snow would fall in the Norse legendary "Friblewinter" increasing albedo - rejecting isolation - reflecting solar heat back into space, then that would cause the land to be cold. The oceans would try to pump heat in to make up for this (La Chatlier's principle) . Water would evaporate from the oceans taking on heat, and then give up that heat as the water condensed into snow over the cold spot. Thus snow would rapidly accumulate, of the order of 10 to 20 meters per year, eventually to more than 2 km height - i.e. in a major glacier like the Würm, Riss, Mindel, etc. glaciers. We also know that these glaciers formed VERY rapidly, in fact in about a decade the English channel froze solid. While it would take centuries to accumulate 2 Km. Still the basic pattern once started is self perpetuating. That theory thus fits the known rapid growth scenario. What would cause the gulf stream to shift south? A great increase in the Newfoundland current would do that. If the polar ice caps melted, then that would allow a circum Greenland major current that would provide just that sort of impetus. The current global warming is virtually certainly enough to start melt off the West Antarctic glacier. In fact several ice shelves have already collapsed. As this was being written the Ronne Shelf split off a ice berg of 140 by 70 KM - larger than Delaware, larger than many districts in Peru, larger than some nations! These ice shelf break away events do not cause a sudden sea level rise since the ice was already floating on the Antarctic ocean, and the buoyancy was already present and had been accounted for in the prior slow build up of the shelves. The entire West Antarctic glacier can melt enough to "float" in a decade or less as that glacier is bedded below sea level; and if relatively warm sea water channels ever get under the glacier, water can pour in, melting ice, opening the channels wider. That will allow chilled water to flow out as well, allowing more warm water in, and the whole glacier can be literally floated causing a quick sea level rise well before the overall relatively slow ice melting of the whole glacier has been completed. The ice, once floating, contributes no more to the rise in oceans. But it causes rapid sea level rise by Archamedes' principle (Eureka!) as it begins to float. This quick rise in sea level then adds more sea are collecting more solar heat, rapidly increasing the global warming and that speeds up other melting of the other glaciers. The Greenland glacier is so huge that it would generally take much longer to melt, but it also is in a basin structure bedded below sea level, surrounded by land. It thus is partially susceptible to similar quick changes as the West Antarctic sheet. The East Antarctic glacier should be slower to melt than the West, but a 8 to 10 degree warming should cause even the two bastions of Greenland and East Antarctic to melt partially by mixing from heat stored in the oceans in just one or two decades. There is enough water in West Antarctic glacier to raise the earth's ocean level about 15 meters. There is enough ice in the East Antarctic glacier to raise sea level about 35 meters. There is enough water in the Greenland glacier (Discounting the water left in the basin) for about 45-55 meters ocean rise. Permafrost in Alaska, Canada and Siberia, has enough water for another 10 meters rise in sea level. Thus a quick rise in sea level of 50 meters in 20 years with total up to 100-110 meters in 40 years seems probable; with a total sea level rise of at least 60 meters minimum expected, and 110 meters maximal expected rise. Heating of perhaps 3 to 4 degrees C could trigger a one decade surge of about 20 meters rise in sea level,. Following that rise the added adsorption area would cause further warming, causing more rapid ice flow and more rapid melting, providing more rise etc. a positive feedback loop event in a vicious and unstoppable circle of cause - event - cause - event building to the observed temperature spike of 8 to 10 ° C in 30 years. This would then cause ocean currents to shift with the new sea levels and heat patterns; and land climates also would shift to match the new situation. Much of what is now land becomes a shallow sea, and the ocean surface is appreciably increased, or to put it another way the fraction of land is appreciably decreased. Mankind would loose the most productive 30% of the land, in terms of crops! Roughly 40% of mankind would be displaced as most major coastal cities and the heartland of China and India; the Yellow and Yangtze rivers and all land between them; the Indus and Ganges River valleys all are inundated; to say nothing of the Amazon basin in Brazil, the Mississippi River valley to St. Louis the Rio Plate including the heart of Argentina / Uruguay and Paraguay etc. 80% of trade and commerce, and industrial production is flooded out. This global warming with the oceanic current changes is probably enough to trigger the reverse massive cooling effect. For 10,000 years we have had balanced currents which oscillated somewhat in El Niño / La Niña type effects, but which overall have moderated a very stable land climate. I fear that enough global warming may already be inevitable that the global temperature spike followed by another ice age is going to happen. The time scale appears to be about 30 years to start this event. Man does not even get to take credit (blame) for causing this overall global warming that will be such a disaster to our way of life. While we are arrogant and presumptuous, simply put we are not all that important in the massive energies involved in this global thermodynamics. The total energies involved, and the dynamics are such that man has at worst speeded things up a few years, in a 18,000 year pattern. The overall effect mankind has had is actually trivial. We may have had an effect of the close order of 0.002 fraction. A maximal and most arrogant 30 to 40 parts in 18,000 or about 0.2% to 0.25% seems possible. So much for our self important egos. The forces of nature we are dealing with are so far above our control levels that it may do some good to put us back into our true perspective. POLITICS If we can build dikes such as are in Holland, but much more massive etc. to control and minimize some of this loss, it also may do us some good learning to cooperate rather than squabble over political power. The billions of displaced people may well resort to violence born out of desperation to find a place of refuge. SOLUTIONS With projected major climatic changes, entire biomes will be disrupted. Unless major effort is taken we may expect mass extinction of both animals and plants. The latter, loss of plants, requires starting NOW to preserve global bio-diversity. Where is there a ecological system which is less susceptible to global warming and flooding than most? The answer is under our noses. Peru has a unique status. First Peru has more bio-diversity than any other nation. Second it has virtually any climate and biome you can name. Third because of its geology and geography, those biomes are less susceptible to global change than in any other place I can name. While there will be some places in Peru which are not so stable, we can select many places that will only have minor changes with major global change, and can plan to use change in elevation to account for temperature shifts. I suggest that Peru needs to be turned into a Noah's arc for plants. I see no way to do this for global animals, but native animal species also can be included. I propose that many (more than 20) major (more than 1000 hectares each) botanical gardens be started. We must seek international funding for this scale project. I suggest artificial water control and considerable new irrigation etc. will also be needed. It will be necessary to identify, collect, and "domesticate" thousands of new species, as well as to assure seed stock for known but not domesticated, uncommon species. I also foresee that we will find numerous new medicinal drugs, and otherwise useful plants. Those new products alone will virtually certainly pay for the whole project in the long run! But the main thrust must always be to preserve bio-diversity. This also will provide occupation for more semi skilled "farmers" than Peru can produce! In short it should provide such impetus for local economy that it will demand upgrade of the entire social structure. Every person will need to be educated to a higher level, in fact as to the limit of each person's potential. I suggest that Peru needs to approach such relatively wealthy nations as Qatar, which will be totally indundated even in the least probably scenario, and offer cooperation. They have money, and about a half million people. In return for financial aid in establishment of needed Peruvian infrastructure, those people can be accommodated and offered refuge. In point of fact they may well provide welcome and needed workers! The whole political situation here becomes delicate in that Peru must retain control over her own destiny. A similar offer to another more populous nation would result in the loss of control by naïve Peruvians. But it is clear that Peru, along with Bolivia and perhaps Ecuador provide a potential island of stability in the midst of projected dramatic change, and there is all too little time in which to build an arc against climatic shift. There is much we can and must do to prepare. Eventually we hope the World will start making plans to react to the inevitable dramatic sea level rise, and start an orderly move up hill and eventually South. With modern science and technology perhaps huge floating islands can be built for some of the Worlds population, or other means found to reduce the impact.In any case, a huge migration to higher land will take place, and that needs planning, and above all time. Let us hope we dont waste too much time since we may only have a short amount remaining... Please bookmark this site and forward it to friends, relatives, and influential people and organizations. |
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