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Contents
Abstract
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Introduction
Chapter 1
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| INTRODUCTION |
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| We as human decision-makers are comfortable with certainty and uncomfortable with its absence. In other words, we are not comfortable with uncertainty. Some one may ask WHY? Simply perhaps because we like the simplicity that certainty involves. Something either exist, or it does not. So, there is a yes/no answer to the question of its existence. It is either true or it is false. This binary logic is also appealing to a programmer who is very well versed in the IF-THEN-ELSE binary choice programming statement. But we can notice that there was unhappiness with the simplicity certainty. This can be observed from the saying of the famous philosopher Bertrand Russell: " All traditional logic habitually assumes that precise symbols are being employed. It is therefore not applicable to this terrestrial life, but only to a celestial existence." 1.1 Ignorance Ignorance usually is treated as either the absence or the distortion of 'true' knowledge and uncertainty as some form of incompleteness in information or knowledge. To some extent these commonsense conceptions are reasonable, but they may have deflected attention away from ignorance by defining it indirectly as nonknowledge. The dominant traditional methods for acquiring justified beliefs or making 'rational' decisions are predicated on the twin goals of complete information and absolute epistemological standards for transforming that information into knowledge and thence into appropriate action. Good information and true knowledge are nearly universally treated as desirable, Even scarce, commodities. There is a much more interest to study ignorance concept since the emergence of modern probability theory in 1660. This interest may be because of the increase in complexity and sheer scale of technologies and organizations developed since World War II and the widely acknowledged failures of deterministic, mechanical models to cope with uncertainties arising in such systems. Whole new areas of professional expertise such as risk assessment and decision theory have appeared in response to PAGE 1 |
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